Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, June 7, 2024

Outlook:

The BIST 100 Index, which started Thursday on a positive trend, closed at 10,279.69, down 0.69%. The Industrial Index fell 0.20% and the Banking Index lost 0.56%. Expectations that taxes will be imposed on transactions made in the stock markets sour the outlook for the BIST. The short-term technical outlook and momentum also continue to weaken the bourse. Since short-term indicators are in oversold areas, we think that an increase in reactionary purchases may occur, although short-term negative news flow weakens investor appetite. On the global side, yesterday the European Central Bank started to reduce interest rates in line with expectations, and European stock markets ended with increases. Most U.S. stock markets were closed. We expect global risk appetite to continue finding direction from incoming data and statements from Fed members. Today, non-agricultural employment and unemployment data in the USA will be followed. If the data indicates a deterioration in the employment market, risk appetite may increase. This morning, ahead of the data, the U.S. futures are trading positively, while German DAX futures and Asian stock markets in general are trending negatively. The VIOP30 Index completed the evening session up 0.30%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Friday with limited reactionary purchases and follow a fluctuating course thereafter. SUPPORT: 10,200 - 10,000 RESISTANCE: 10,400 - 10,500.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.26% against the USD to close at 32.2315. The currency also appreciated by 0.22% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 27.63%-27.74%, ending at the 27.70%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Sector News:
BRSA Weekly: Steep USD15.2bn exit from FX deposits for the prior 6 weeks in a row. According to weekly BRSA data as of May 31, 2024, the sector's FX deposits in ($ terms) fell by a further USD3.3bn and 1.7% weekly to USD192.8bn. Cumulative outflow has reached as much as USD15.2bn and 7.5% over the prior 6 weeks.
The share of FX deposits in total deposits fell by 10bps weekly to 38.6%. State and foreign deposit banks' FX deposits fell by 2.0% and 1.9% WoW, respectively. For private deposit banks those deposits fell by 1.3% weekly.
Individual and official institutions FX deposits fell by 1.8% and 5.1% weekly, respectively. There was a 1.3% weekly rise for commercial institutions' FX deposits.
Currency-protected deposit outflow accelerated. Weekly outflow in KKM rose to 1.7% from 0.7% weekly. The total amount fell by TRY36.8bn to 2.12 trillion TL. Its share in TRY deposits fell by 20bps weekly to 21.7%. In dollar terms, it also fell by 1.8% WoW to 66.7 billion dollars. The share of KKM deposits was flat weekly at 34.6%.
Loan growth rate losing momentum on sharp slowdown in commercial credit cards. 13W moving average (FX adj.) total lending growth eased to 37.1% vs. 38.7% in the prior week on lower growth of commercial credit cards. Total consumer loan growth gained momentum weekly after two weeks, from 29.4% to 30.5%. Growth in consumer credit cards also gained momentum after 11 weeks to 51.2% from 50%. Yet, corporate credit card growth sharply eased to 57% from 69.8% Commercial installment loans lost momentum to 36.5%,
Sharp decline in TRY deposits. TRY deposits fell by TRY100bn weekly. Individual deposits rose 1.0% while commercial institutions' fell 2.9% weekly. Other institutions' deposits fell sharply by 7.8% weekly.
Steep 7.2pp easing in TRY deposit rates over the prior three weeks. On the funding side, the weighted average interest rate on TRY deposits with up to 3M maturities fell by a further 77bps on a weekly basis to 61%. The weighted average TRY commercial loans rate (excluding overdraft and corporate credit cards) also fell by 16 basis points on a weekly basis to 62.54%. Thus, the spread has improved to 153bps from 93bps in the prior week.
Sector's FX long position continued to rise WoW due to state deposit banks. The sector's FX long position rose by a further 5% WoW to 2,644 million dollars. State deposit banks' FX long position rose sharply by 41% weekly to 1,582 million dollars, the highest since December 2023. The only rise was in this segment. In foreign deposit banks, it fell by 14% weekly to 831 million dollars. For private deposit banks, it plunged 39% on a weekly basis to 290 million dollars. The sector's FC net general position/regulatory ratio rose by 10bps to 2.9% weekly. On a segmental basis, this rate is 5.8% and 3.8% for state and foreign deposit banks, and 1.0% for private deposit banks.
Company News:
May 2024 Foreign activity at Borsa Istanbul: In May 2024 foreign investors were net sellers of Turkish equities at Borsa Istanbul to the tune of USD 937.5mn. Among the top-five most sold stocks: Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; OP) on USD 440.0mn, was followed by Tupras (TUPRS.TI; OP), Yapi Kredi (YKBNK.TI; OP), Koc Holding (KCHOL.TI; OP) and Garanti BBVA (GARAN.TI; OP). Meanwhile, the top-five most bought stocks were: Alarko Holding (ALARK.TI; N/C) on USD 48.3mn, being the most active, followed by Bim (BIMAS.TI; OP), Sabanci Holding (SAHOL.TI; OP), Erdemir (EREGL.TI; OP) and Kardemir (KRDMD.TI; N/C).
Garanti BBVA (GARAN.TI; OP) has received a dual-currency syndication for USD240.75mn and EUR178.6mn (Total amount: USD435mn) with 367-day maturity. The rollover rate was rather low at 100% while the all-in costs were Sofr+250bps and Euribor+225bps, respectively, 175bps below the bank's borrowing in June 2023 (Neutral).
HalkBank (HALKB.TI; MP) and VakifBank (VAKBN.TI; MP) approved the decision not to distribute dividends from their 2023 earnings at the Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 6 June 2024 (Neutral).
Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; OP) has released its traffic figures for May 2024 with PAX decline of 1.7% YoY due to the decrease in domestic passengers compared to May 2023. THY's total PAX in May 2024 was at 7.25mn. Meanwhile, in May 2024, the share of international PAX in total PAX was 63.1%. The total load factor was down, at 79.8% in May 2024. The carrier's international PAX rose by 2.5% YoY to 4.57mn in May 2024; domestic PAX declined by 8.2% YoY to 2.68mn in May 2024. Also, THY's cargo operations volume was positive, up 28.8% YoY in May 2024. The Company's announced May 2024 traffic data indicates domestic passengers to fall down, but the solid cargo operations' volume effect in May 2024 supports its operations. Meanwhile, the sustained improvement in int'l PAX continues to support Company operations (Slightly Negative).



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