Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, July 4, 2024

Outlook:

The BIST100 Index started Wednesday on a positive trend, followed a fluctuating course thereafter, and closed at 10,682.15, up 2.26%. While the Industrial Index rose 1.56%, the Banking Index diverged positively, up 4.46%. Yesterday's rise was mainly effective on BIST30 stocks. After the sharp sales recorded at the start of the week, reactionary purchases continue at the BIST. June CPI was announced yesterday at 1.64% monthly and 71.6% annually, hence below our and market expectations. The disinflation trend is expected to remain evident throughout the rest of the year. On the global front, U.S. Stock markets continued their rise led by technology stocks, and European counterparts also followed a positive trend yesterday. This morning, U.S. futures and Asian stock markets are mixed, while German DAX futures are on a downtrend. Today US markets will be closed. General elections will be held in the U.K. We expect risk appetite to be guided by data and the election atmosphere in Europe, and continue to show regional changes in this period. The VIOP30 Index ended the evening session up 0.16%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday somewhat positively, and to continue its rise despite any intraday sales. SUPPORT: 10,800 - 11,000 RESISTANCE: 10,600 - 10,500.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.06% against the USD to close at 32.5492. The currency also depreciated by 0.24% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 27.35%-27.92%, ending the day at a low of 27.35%, 67 bps below its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** CPI rises 1.64% mom in June, while annual inflation is at 71.6%. June inflation outlook beats expectations for headline and core inflation indicators… CPI increased by 1.64% mom in June, while annual inflation fell to 71.6% (previous 75.45%). Market expectations were that inflation would increase by 2.2% mom and 72.61% YoY (Seker Investment expectations were 2.4% mom and 72.86% YoY). We had expected the inflation trend to start declining after peaking in May, and the actual figures suggest that this trend may continue better than both our and the market's expectations. Cumulative inflation in the first half of the year is 24.73%. While the current outlook still points to a high trend in inflation levels, its convergence to a level in line with forecasts as of June will accelerate the disinflation process. Since the monthly inflation outlook is a key indicator for the monetary policy stance, it would not be a surprise to see a continuation of tight monetary policy in the short term. The average of food, housing and transportation inflation, which has a 57% weight in the index, rose by 74.03% YoY. Hence, we can say that the perceived inflation in basic expenditures for households is hovering above headline inflation. In the same period, monthly inflation in the Special CPI Aggregate B index (core inflation) was realized as 1.9%, while annual inflation was realized as 70.4%. Due to the strong base effect in core inflation indicators, the realization was lower than headline inflation. Producer prices, on the other hand, rose by 1.38% mom in June, while the annual change in PPI was realized as 50.09%. When we consider the sub-indices of PPI, annual changes in main industrial groups were realized as a 46.89% increase in intermediate goods, a 63.36% increase in durable consumer goods, a 64.13% increase in non-durable consumer goods, a 30.41% increase in energy and a 53.68% increase in capital goods. The calm course in producer prices alleviates cost-driven CPI pressure. We expect no inflationary pressure from PPI to CPI in the short term. If the current tight monetary stance is maintained decisively, demand inflation will gradually converge to a level consistent with the year-end inflation forecasts. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Company News:
Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP) has signed an agreement with the Presidency of The Republic of Türkiye Secretariat of Defence Industries regarding Electronic Warfare Systems for USD 109.7mn. The latest contract represents ~1.0% of the company's total backlog (Positive).
Per Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; OP) Board of Directors' decision, THY has reached a compensation settlement with International Aero Engines LLC (IAE) in relation to mitigating the operational impact arising from engine availability and related issues for PW1100G-JM Engine powered A320/321NEO aircraft. The settlement includes the revision of the Purchase and Maintenance agreements between THY and IAE (Neutral).




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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.