Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Tuesday on a negative trend, observed a weak fluctuating intraday course and closed at 7,168.51, down 0.67%. While the Banking Index led the sales, down 1.44%, the Industrial Index closed the day down 0.08%. Although factors such as gradual normalization, the negative real interest rate policy, and strong foreign inflows continue to support the BIST, we find it normal to see periodic profit-taking in the BIST100. After all, the Index has recorded a rise of 56% in the post-election period. We think that the balance sheet period will continue to support the BIST in the short term by highlighting share-based divergences. Among the major global stock markets the U.S. futures, German DAX futures, and Asian Stock Markets are negative this morning. Rating agency Fitch's surprising downgrading of the U.S. due to budgetary issues pressures risk appetite. Yet, risk appetite will remain strong as firm economic data continues to emerge. We expect the rise in major global stock markets to continue with limited profit sales unless data suggests a recession. The VIOP-30 index closed the evening session down 0.02%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Wednesday with a negative trend, followed by a fluctuating weak course amid profit-taking. SUPPORT: 7,113 - 7,032 RESISTANCE: 7,263 - 7,376.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.10% compared to the USD to close to 26.9659. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.13% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond ending at 18.76%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Company News:
Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP) has signed two international sales contracts valued at USD 10.7mn for the sales of fire control systems to an Asian and a European country. The company has also signed a USD 11.9mn agreement with Roketsan regarding the procurement of Electro-Optical Systems. The latest deals (~USD 22.6mn) represent 0.3% of the company's total backlog (Positive).
According to Voice of America, HalkBank (HALKB.TI; MP) has submitted a 71-page defense petition to the Second District Court of Appeals in New York. The US Constitutional Court had sent the decision to the New York Second District Court of Appeals for reconsideration on April 19. In the petition regarding the appeal request, there is the opinion that as 91% of the bank belongs to the Turkey Wealth Fund, the bank is covered by the 'Foreign State Immunity Act' (FSIA) and therefore cannot be prosecuted in the USA.
Koc Holding (KCHOL.TI; OP) booked a TRY 20,600mn net profit in 2Q23 exceeding our TRY 17,690mn and the market's TRY 18,368mn estimate. Expectation-beating results in the energy and automotive segments chiefly explained the deviation from our estimate. Koc Holding printed TRY 266,540mn of revenues (including the financial sector) in 2Q23.
The Holding's solo net cash position rose to USD 395mn from USD 352mn in 1Q23, with a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.5x.
Our target price for KCHOL is TRY 179,88/share and the stock has 35,8% upside potential compared to its closing price on August 1, 2023.
Migros (MGROS.TI; OP) is to announce its 2Q23 results after the close of the TR markets. For 2Q23, we expect net sales of TRY 31,346mn (Research Turkey market average expectation: TRY 31,186mn), rising 96% YoY. On the EBITDA front, the average market expectation is TRY 2,169mn, while our expectation is TRY 2,286mn. As a result, we expect the Company to print a net profit of TRY 1,195mn (RT market expectation: TRY 1,074mn).
VakifBank (VAKBN.TI; MP) has secured a new funding transaction with an international bank amounting to USD500mn with a maturity of 5 years. Note that the bank had secured a 2-year non-refundable, 5-year-term securitization transaction amounting to USD2bn at the beginning of 2023, under the DPR securitization program.



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