Foreign Visitor Arrivals to Turkiye February 2023 data (Oyak Yatırım)

Decent monthly performance despite low season and earthquakes… According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's recent February 2023 data release, foreign visitor arrivals to Turkiye was 1.9mn, up by 21% y/y and 12% higher than the pre-Covid February 2019. 2M23 figure materialized at 3.9mn up by 37% y/y and 21% higher than the pre-Covid 2M19. It is noteworthy that 1H22 was a weak base due to Omicron worries and Russia-Ukraine tension. It should also be added that this is the first tourism data including 6th February dated earthquakes' impact. In mid-March, 50:50 THY- Lufthansa JV SunExpress' Chief Executive Mr Kownatzkis had stated that summer bookings to Turkey spiked as of this month after a brief drop following February's devastating earthquakes. Within the first week right after the earthquake they saw significant demand drops, roughly 50-52% in international demand. They observed the hit for roughly ten days and after those ten days demand has absolutely recovered. Furthermore, very recently, Minister of Culture and Tourism Mr Ersoy said that with increased promotions, they maintain their previously declared targets (2023 target is achieving 60 million tourists and USD56bn in tourism revenue, which stood at 51.4mn in 2022, corresponding to c17% y/y growth, while these figures include Turkish expats living abroad)
Weak 2M22 base distorts meaningful annual comparison… In terms of foreign tourist arrivals by countries' top 20 list (2M23 figures' changes versus 2M22) show that major increases belonged to Saudi Arabia (+2792% y/y), Indonesia (+%335) and Greece (+150%) which again might be related to weak base. On the other hand, the highest y/y shrinkages belonged to Netherlands (-7%), Kuwait (-3%) and Iran (-1%) as can be observed in the attached pdf's chart.


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