Weekly Monetary Aggregates Report (Gedik Yatırım)

Monetary Aggregates Summary
In the week of June 7, the USD4,3bn improvement in the CBRT’s net reserves excluding swaps and the USD1.6bn decline in FX deposits are particularly noteworthy. The weekly
movements can be summarized as follows:
? Parity adjusted FX deposits decreased by approximately USD1.6bn, with USD806 mn in sales for corporates and USD843 mn for individuals. Consequently, FX deposits have declined by
USD23bn since the week of March 29th, with USD11.4bn of this decrease coming from individuals and USD10.6bn from corporates.
? FX-protected deposits (KKM) decreased to TL2,098 bn with a weekly outflow of TL26.5bn (USD0.8bn). Since the peak in August 2023, KKM accounts have decreased by TL1.310bn (USD
71.7bn).
? The share of FX deposits + KKM in total deposits fell from 51.9% to 51.6% w-o-w. Note that the share of FX deposits and KKM accounts in total deposits had peaked at 68.4% in August
2023.
? TL deposits increased by TL 14bn weekly and reached TL9.8 trillion.
? FX loans increased by 0.4% WoW, or by USD 0,5bn, bringing the total increase since the end of March to 12% (USD16.1bn), and reaching USD150.8bn.
? Looking at the annualized 13-week average loan growth, commercial loans decreased from 37% to 31.8%, while consumer loans also decreased from 30.5% to 25.7%.
? Net foreign inflows into government domestic debt securities (GDDS) was USD541 mn, with the final balance reaching approximately USD10.6bn, while the outflow from equities was
USD543 million, with the final balance standing at USD39.5 bn. Consequently, net purchases in GDDS reached USD8bn y-t-d, whie net sales in equities reached USD425 million over the
same period.
? In the week of June 7, gross reserves increased by USD2.6bn from USD143.6bn to USD146.2bn. In the same week, net reserves increased by USD1.9bn from USD45.6bn to USD47.5bn.
We also see that the CBRT reduced the swap position with commercial banks by USD2.5bn last week, thus net FX reserves excluding swaps improved from USD1.7bn to USD5.9bn. Recall
that, net FX reserves excluding swaps had bottomed out at -USD65.5bn at the end of March.
? According to the CBRT’s daily analytical balance sheet, we calculate an increase of USD0.5bn in gross reserves, a decrease of roughly USD1bn in net reserves, and an increase of some
USD2bn in net reserves excluding swaps, as of June 12th (i.e., in the first 3 days of the week). Accordingly, net FX reserves excluding swaps have roughly reached around USD7.9 bn.

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.