TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 was the scene of volatile trading, until investors chose to hit the risk-off button, hurrying sales at the BIST100 towards the end of the session, causing for the 1% losses to 4897, and turnover of a meagre TRY 51.8bn, rebounding from the critical 5000 RESISTANCE level, and also diverging negatively from its global peers, on the back of easing concerns over the Banks.
• The Banks fell by over 3%, due to their poor February profits, coupled with AKBNK’s dividend payment, whereas the Mining and Conglomerates managed to diversify positively from their peers. We envisage further pressure on banks due to the full removal of interest rate cap on FX protected deposits, which may further squeeze the spreads that are already under pressure.
• DOHOL, GARAN and TAVHL were yesterday’s top BIST30 advancers, whereas GUBRF, SASA and ASELS were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a flat opening at the BIST100.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading slightly weaker against the USD at 19.18, after having tested 19.21 earlier, and weaker against the Euro at 20.92, whereas the DXY is trading flat 102.20. Yesterday, the 2yr and 10yr bond yields declined by 3bps and 26bps to 13.14% and 10.49%, respectively.
• Brent is currently trading lower at USD 78.35, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading flat at USD 1978 ad TRY 1220, respectively.
• The recent rise in oil can be attributed to lower U.S. crude stockpiles, alongside a halt to exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region. A Kurdish official stated that a delegation would visit Baghdad soon to resolve the issues, but oil flow this week is not probable. We deem this negative on TR macro.
• The interest-rate ceiling cap for FX-protected lira deposits has been removed, and determined with the individual banks.
• The CMB has revised the share allocations from IPOs. As such, IPOs TRY 750 and less will be allocated via sales directly in the BIST, greater than TRY 750mn via bookbuilding, and equal allocation.
• March Economic Confidence figure fell by 0.2% from February to 98.9
When the going gets tough, the foreigners get going (check our report released yesterday)
• During the preceding week, foreign investors exhibited a marked proclivity towards divestment of shares. According to CBRT data, non-residents divested equities worth US$113mn, whilst registering a modest US$25mn inflows to the bond market. Since the beginning of the year, foreign investors have demonstrated a marked tendency towards offloading equity portfolios, with a sizeable US$865mn outflow, as opposed to a relatively less US$57mn divestiture from bond holdings. It is noteworthy that the share of foreigners in the bond market came down to an all-time-low 0.7%, whereas their participation in the stock market free float slipped down to 28.4%, reaching a record low level.
NEWS FLOW:
• ASELS: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 100%, via bonus issue, as well decision to distribute gross TRY 0.17/cash dividends
• GESAN: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 300% via bonus issue
• KMPUR: Disclosed that it has received a €4.6 order.
• TCELL: Disclosed that its subsidiary Beltel Telecommunications has been wholly merged with TCELL.
• TUPRS: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 600% via bonus issue
AGENDA:
• The Trade Balance and S&Ps credit rating (B “Stable”) will be on the local agenda, whereas data flow from abroad is plentiful, but the one data release everyone will be watching is the U.S. Core PCE figures, estimated to come in at 4.7%.
• Other news flow are the Eurozone March CPI numbers, second noteworthy to the Core PCE, in most investors’ opinion, as well as the U.S. Personal Income and Spending Data, and the March Michigan Consumer Sentiment, coupled with China’s PMI figures, ad Germany’s Retail Sales and Unemployment Data, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will also be speaking today.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.