TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed flat yesterday at 3976, after renewing its historic peak at 4015.62, with a turnover of TRY 62.3bn, facing profit-takings towards the close of the day. The Banks and Industrials rose by 0.24% and 0.89%, whereas the Conglomerates fell by 0.06% and the Aviation stocks diverged negatively from its peers, due especially to the rising, and according to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), possible further acceleration of Covid cases, in the next couple weeks.
• As such, ASELS, GARAN and EREGL-thanks to the Competition Board’s investigation into HRC imports from China, as well as last night’s financial results expectations, were the top BIST30 performers, whereas KCHOL, BIMAS, and TCELL were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a slightly positive opening at the BIST.
• Currently, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 18.60, and the DXY is lower at 109.55. The 2y rates fell slightly by 2bps to 15.44%, whereas the 10yr yields went the opposite direction, rising by 13bps. The 5yr CDS rates continued to fall, closing yesterday 13bps lower at 675. The dollar’s strength fell to a three-week low as traders bet the Fed will slow-down the pace of its rate hikes amid signs the world’s biggest economy is starting to slow.
• On the commodity front, Brent has surged higher to USD 93.92, as we had indicated in our daily yesterday that US gasoline stockpiles would fall, and US oil exports were at a record high, with the EIA warning that fuel outlook is tight. Ounce and gram GOLD prices have risen to USD 1669 and TRY 998, respectively.
3Q22 AGENDA:
• GARAN: (TFG NI Est: TRY 17.549bn vs Cons. TRY 17.07bn 3Q21A: TRY 3.645bn).
3Q22 RESULTS:
• AKBNK: Akbank posted TRY17.07bn net profit in its 3Q22 financials, which is in line with our TRY16.90bn estimate and a tad above TRY16.66bn consensus. Quarterly ROE has climbed up to an all time high level of 60%. CPI linker return that was TRY9.6bn in 2Q22 has been realised as TRY14.2bn in 3Q22, so 63% of pre-tax profit was made up CPI linker returns. The Bank claims that each 1pp decline in CPI pulls down the return by TRY430mn. So there should be a major downswing in earnings (trading book), as well as shareholders’ equity (AFS impact), if CPI halves next year. C/I is at an all time low of 18% due to the inflating denominator as opex is up 92% y-y. While cost of risk is stable q-q, the bank guides for the COR to surge up to 100bp for full year from 49bp for 9 months, implying that there will be a major provision load for the final quarter. TRY loan-deposit spread improved by 20bp q-q, which should be close to that of peers. Net-net we expect a muted market reaction for Akbank’s shares on these results.
• EREGL: Positive reaction. NI: TRY 2.56bn vs Cons. TRY 2.012 vs 3Q21: TRY 5bn. 9mth EBITDA: TRY 1.6bn, EBITDA Margin: 26%. Sales TRY 36.7bn vs TRY 18.3bn y/y.
• OTKAR: Negative reaction. NI: TRY 58mn vs Cons. TRY 234mn. EBITDA 80% below market consensus. The EBITDA margin is a mere 2.5% vs the 13.5% consensus.
• TAVHL: Operationally in-line. NI: TRY 1.57bn vs Cons. TRY 1.39bn vs 3Q21: 632mn. EBITDA €267mn; Sales TRY 5.93bn vs TRY 1.96bn y/y. Expects €170mn-190mn€ CAPEX, Sales €970mn-€1.01bn, 9mth EBITDA TRY €267mn
• TKFEN: NI: TRY 736mn vs Cons. TRY 652mn vs 3Q21: TRY 463mn.
• TTRAK: NI: TRY 653mn vs Cons. TRY 537mn vs 3Q21: TRY 221.8mn
• TOASO: NI: TRY 2.06bn vs Cons. TRY 1.83bn vs 3Q21 due to deferred tax payment: TRY 580.6mn. 9mth EBITDA: TRY 7bn, EBITDA Margin 16.6%. Sales TRY 16bn vs TRY 5.59bn y/y. Raised its guidance to 145k-155k local sales from prev. 140k-155k; Exports at 115k-125k from 110k-125k, and CAPEX @ €50mn vs prev. €80mn.
NEWS FLOW:
• Yesterday, Canada raised its policy rate by 50bps versus the expected 75bps, thus signalling a slow-down in rate hikes as not to further hamper global growth.
AGENDA:
• On the local front today, Sep. Trade Balance (Cons. TRY -10.4bn); Economic Confidence, and Net Foreign Weekly Stock/Bond Investments will be released, as well as Inflation Assessment Report, to be presented by the CBRT Head, whereas the most important news flow on the international front is the ECB policy rate decision, with expectations of a 75bps rate hike, coupled with the US GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Jobless Claims figures.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.