TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

BIST FALLS AS INVESTORS TAKE PROFITS ON CONSTRUCTION STOCKS
" The BIST closed yesterday on a loss of 1.51% at 5071, and with a turnover of TRY 77.6bn, due to the profit-takings on the CEMENT, IRON/STEEL and CONSTRUCTION stocks.
" Recent laggard, Banks, managed to decouple positively, rising by 1.10%, alongside the Telcos.
" As such, GUBRF, TCELL and TTKOM led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, whereas KRDMD closed limit-down, and was followed by EKGYO and EREGL.
" Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST due to reactionary buying and supported by the positive mood in global markets.
" As of yesterday's close, the TRY is trading flat at 18.88 against the USD and 20.05 against the Euro, whereas the DXY is calm at 104.38. The 2yr bond yields fell by 14bps to 10.68%, whereas the 10yrs yields rose by 9bps to 10.58%.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trading slightly higher this morning at USD 80.84, after having fallen sharply to both the increase in the U.S stockpiles, as well as the disclosure of the FOMC Minutes, that indicated a continuation of rate hikes to control inflation, and whereas ounce GOLD has fallen to 1829, gram GOLD is unchanged at TRY 1110.
" ECB Governing Council Member, Francois Villeroy stated yesterday that the markets have overshot in recent days when placing bets on the peak for European Central Bank interest rates. The ECB is "in no way" obliged to raise borrowing costs at every meeting between now and September, with the deposit rate already at a level that restricts the euro-zone economy.
" Yesterday's FOMC Minutes showed that the Fed is inclined towards more rate hikes to curb inflation, and that almost all officials backed slowing pace of increases, "a few" FOMC supported, or could favour larger hikes, and that a few participants favoured raising rates by 50bps, however, all participants favoured a 25bps rate hike. The Minutes also unveiled that restrictive monetary policy is needed until the Fed is confident of inflation falling to 2%, and that the process will likely take some time. All participants favoured further Fed balance sheet reductions, and that uncertainty associated with outlooks for the economy and job market inflation was high.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
" BRISA (POSITIVE): Disclosed a net profit of TRY510mn. TRY859mn EBITDA and TRY4505mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is in line with consensus mean while net sales and EBITDA both are 13% above the consensus mean mainly due to strong demand as EBITDA Margin was in line with consensus mean. TTKOM: Proposed no dividend payout from the 2022 profits.
" TTKOM (NEGATIVE): Posted TRY1000mn net profit, TRY5239mn EBITDA and TRY15287mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 29% below consensus mean, net sales is 6% above consensus mean due to strong demand, whereas EBITDA is 6% below consensus mean mainly due to lower than expected EBITDA Margin (Consensus Mean %38.7, realized %34.3). Even though there is strong top line growth, we deem the results negative due to weak EBITDA results. Company's guidance for 2023: 52%-55% Revenue growth, 2300-2500TRYmn EBITDA, CAPEX 1700-1900TRYmn. Company will not distribute dividend for 2022.
NEWS FLOW:
" SASA: Disclosed that it has halted production at its DMT ((dimethyl terephthalate) production line and to perform maintenance if needed after the earthquakes, adding that checks and possible maintenance works are expected to be completed within 1 month.
" FORMT: The steel door producer disclosed that its office in Gaziantep will close to the damage incurred by the earthquake, but that it will increase its distribution network in the affected areas.
" KMPUR: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 453mn agreement from sandwich panel makers to be used in earthquake containers until April, 2023. We deem this agreement to increase annual sales by 10%.
" GESAN: Disclosed that its 70% subsidiary, Europwoer Enerji, had submitted the best bid of USD 198.9mn in the electricity tender for Yuksekova, Hakkari.
" Manas: Disclosed that it will increase its production and services to the Hatay Water Distribution Company, as not to meet the water demands of the area.
" PNLSN: Disclosed that it has been awarded 3 agreements amounting to USD 8.2mn.
" YEOTK: Disclosed that its subsidiary YEO Energy will form a 50MWp company in Bulgaria, and that the land for development has been obtained for 49 years.
AGENDA:
" On the local front, the MPC will be convening, with the market consensus expecting a 100bps rate cut to bring down the policy rate to 8%, with the lowest and highest estimates at 7% and 9%, respectively, whereas the Eurozone will be disclosing its CPI figures, and the US GDP (Est. 2.9%), and Jobless claims will also be disclosed. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic will speak today



 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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