TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST was on “Risk-on Mode” yesterday may be an understatement, opening the new week on a gain of 6.08% at 3848, and a robust turnover of TRY 94.1bn, as investors seem to have already started pricing-in strong 3q22 financial releases, as well as being buoyed by the Putin’s recent statements of making Turkey the energy hub for Russian natural gas to Europe, after the annulment of the Nordstream project.
• The Banks led the gains, with all major banks closing the day limit-up, whereas the Industrial and REITs lagged behind their peers in a relative matter.
• Besides the Banks closing limit-up and topping the gains at the BIST30, honourable mentions are also include DOHOL, KCHOL and TUPRS, whereas PETKM shares fell by 2.54% due to expectations of weak results due to the surge in ethylene prices, and SASA fell by 1.87%, after its continuous steep gains caught the eye of the CMB watchdog, which banned credit and short-selling of the stock for 1month.
• Today, we expect the positive mood to continue at the BIST.
• The TRY is currently trading slightly weaker against the USD at 18.59, and the DXY has retreated sharply to 111.90. The local 2yr and 10yr yields have fallen by 12bps and 30bps, respectively. The 5yr CDS rates will start the day from the 754
• On the commodity front, Brent has once again fallen to USD 91.30 and ounce and gram GOLD prices have risen to USD 1657 and TRY 991, respectively.
NEWS FLOW:
• Yesterday, the new UK exchequer, Mr. Jeremy Hunt, unveiled the new plan to restore fiscal stability, by pretty much reducing his predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng’s £32bn of £45bn of giveaways. Plans to reduce the basic rate of income tax from 20 per cent to 19 per cent in April next year were scrapped, as well as Plans for new VAT-free shopping for international tourists; Help with energy bills for all households will only last until April, with Mr Hunt announcing a review to look at a “new approach” to target support those who are still worst off. Planned cut to stamp duty will continue, as will the reversal of the 1.25 percentage point increase in national insurance contributions.
• Fitch Senior Director, head of Turkish banks, stated yesterday that asset quality risks remain high due to macro uncertainty, concentration, seasoning risks and high foreign-currency loans, “Asset quality more of a ‘slow burn’ risk but nevertheless significant,” Banks are focusing on minimizing duration gaps; Banks’ revenue growth offsets inflationary cost pressures.
• The Turkey Budget Balance recorded its historic deficit for September at TRY -78.6bn.
• Banking: Last night, the CBRT increased the lira-denominated “securities maintenance ratio” to 5% from 3%. According to the decree, the securities will be maintained based on the targets of lira deposits share as of 2023, instead of conversion rate; In a separate statement, the CBRT stated that further steps as part of ‘liraization strategy’ will be taken in the rest of the year and in 2023.
• TAVHL: Disclosed that its consortium was awarded the International grounds-operations at Lagos/Nigeria airport for 20 years.
• FROTO: Disclosed that the halt in its Craiova/Romania factory has been extended until Oct 21 due to procurement issues-however, no major impact on production is expected.
• KARSN: Disclosed that manufacturing of the Renault Megane sedan has been increased to 2 shifts from 1.
• GLYHO: Disclosed that 4539 cruise ship reservations have been made for 2023, pointing to an increase of 11mn passenger count.
AGENDA:
• On the local front today, House Price Index will be released, whereas on the international side, the US Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization will be followed, whereas our German colleagues will be following the Zew Survey Expectations
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.