TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

STRONG U.S. RETAIL NUMBERS HAVE INVESTORS QUESTIONING WHETHER OR NOT FED RATE HIKES ARE WORKING?
• The BIST closed yesterday on a gain of 0.25% at 4669, and turnover of TRY 139.2bn, after facing profit-takings from its USD gap resistance of 4784, despite the Banks rising nearly 3% higher, and the Industrial stocks rose by 1.54%. The Aviation stocks tumbled by nearly 4% due to fears of Ukraine-Russia tension expanding into NATO, after the missile attack left 2 dead in Poland, later revealed to be the cause of a Ukrainian s-300. The sales were fuelled by disclosure of strong retail sales in the U.S., questioning whether or not the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes are enough or not?
• HALKB closed limit-up yesterday, and was followed by SASA and TOASO-the latter due to Stellantis Turkey GM’s statement that they desire to be the top electric car producer in Turkey. At the bottom of the list, THYAO and PGSUS shares were grounded, and joined by BIMAS.
• Today, we expect a flat opening due to the stress in the international markets.
• Currently, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 18.62, however, the DXY is trading slightly higher at 106.39. The 2yr TRY rates fell by 31bps to 13.09%, whereas the 10yr yields fell a moderate 3bps to 11.89%.
• Switching our focus now onto the commodities, the downward spiralling of Brent is continuing, currently trading at USD 90.91, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have fallen to USD 1764 and TRY 1055, respectively due to easing missile attack tension.
• According to media sources, the ECB may favour raising rates by 50bps vs the expected 75bps in December, citing officials.
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said 4.75% to 5.25% was a “reasonable” range for where the US central bank could lift interest rates and then go on hold. More importantly, she added that while the strategy is to raise rates and then hold for a time that did not mean they were close to ending their tightening campaign. “Pausing is off the table right now, it’s not even part of the discussion. Right now, the discussion is, rightly, in slowing the pace,” she said. New York Fed President John Williams, also stressed the necessity to defeat high inflation.
• UK Inflation hit is 41-yr high of 11.1%.
NEWS FLOW:
• Turkey October home sales fell by 25% y/y to 102,660, and prices rose by 189% y/y.
• The Head of the Association of Housing Developers and Investors called for lower home loan rates, and lessening of access restrictions to loans.
• BANKS: According to a new Fitch Ratings report, Turkish banks’ refinancing risks have increased further as macroeconomic imbalances rise, with the sector’s short-term external foreign-currency borrowings remaining high. Sector FC liquidity (USD90 billion) is sufficient to cover a short-lived market closure and a moderate FC deposit outflow, although high-quality FC liquid assets (cash and unencumbered placements in foreign banks and FC swaps with foreign counterparties) are much lower (end-1H22: USD27 billion). Liquidity could quickly come under pressure following adverse market developments, raising the risk of government intervention.
• ANHYT: Disclosed that its 10mth premiums rose by 70.1% to TRY 2.55bn
• GESAN: Disclosed that it has signed a USD 2.2mn deal in Ankara
• KOZAL: Disclosed that its operating license transfer of Himmetdede mine was approved
• ISSEN: Disclosed that it has applied with the CMB to increase its paid-in-capital by 220% to TRY 452.7mn

AGENDA:
• On the local front, Foreigners’ Weekly Net Stock/Bond Investments will be released, whereas on the international front, the Eurozone CPI, and U.S October housing starts and building permits will be released.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.