TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

FOMC MINUTES EXPECTED TO STRAIN MARKETS
" The BIST managed to close yesterday 0.37% lower at 7662, with a turnover of TRY 146.2bn, due to the strong sell-offs among the Banks, amid media speculations of a tax on profits-akin to Meloni's Italy. As such, the Banks fell by 1.71%, whereas the Petrochemical and Iron & Steel stocks diverged positively from their peers. We also observed interest in the Energy stocks. Industrial index closed up 0.8%.
" ODAS, TUPRS and EKGYO were yesterday's biggest gainers, as opposed to ASELS, due to its poor financial results, as well as AKSEN and HEKTS.
" Today, parallel to the negative closing in the US markets last night, and negative trading this morning in the Asian markets, after the Minutes showed that inflation concerns among the members lingered, which could lead to continued rate hikes, we expect a slightly negative opening at the BIST as well.
" The TRY is currently trading weaker against the greenback just below the 27.10 ticker, but flat against the Euro at 29.48, whereas the DXY has risen to 103.53. Both the 2yr and 10yr rates rose by 49bps and 35bps yesterday to 17.79% and 19.28%, respectively.
" On the commodity front, Brent has fallen sharply to USD 83, and both ounce and gram GOLD have fallen to USD 1892 and TRY 1648, respectively, after the disclosure of the FOMC Minutes.
" The Minutes showed yesterday that the Fed officials were divided over the need for more interest rate hikes at the U.S. central bank's July 25-26 meeting, with "some participants" citing the risks to the economy of pushing rates too far even as "most" policymakers continued to prioritize the battle against inflation. As such, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy." The 10yr US Bond rates have consequently risen to 4.3130!
" Home Price Index has risen by 4.8% m/m, but 95.9% on an annual basis, around 30% in real terms.
AGENDA:
" On the local front, the Weekly Non-Resident STOCK/BOND holdings will be released, whereas the US will be disclosing the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and US Jobless Claims.
2Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
" ALKIM - POSITIVE: Sodium sulphate producer Alkim posted TRY14mn EBITDA for 2Q23 that is 15% above the consensus and a net profit of TRY136mn surpassed the expectations by 43%. We like the company's cash generation as the net cash/EBITDA climbed to 0.8x the highest for over one year thanks to TRY167mn addition to the net cash position. The stock trades at 12x P/E and 9x EV/EBITDA, which we think are fair.
" ENKA - NEUTRAL: While Enka's 2Q23 revenues and net profit (TRY2.46bn) trailed the forecasts by 24%, each, the EBITDA came in 17% better than expected at TRY3.69bn. Softer than expected investment income as well as deferred tax expenses pulled down the profit below expectations. We expect neutral/slightly negative market reaction.
" EKGYO - SLIGHTLY POSITIVE: 2Q23 net sales, EBITDA and net profit were above market expectations at TRY6bn, TRY1.2bn and TRY1.7bn. Net sales exceeded expectations by 106% while EBITDA and net profit were 26% and 102% higher than forecasted. EBITDA margin of 19.2% stood below 31.2% consensus owing to net sales coming out way higher than estimated. Bottom line was supported by net financial income of TRY343mn (net financial expense of TRY159.7mn during the same period last year).
" INDES - POSITIVE: While Indeks Computer's TRY392mn 2Q23 EBITDA surpassed the expectations by 20%, the TRY210mn net profit was 35% below the consensus due to higher tax burden and higher expenses from other activities. Still we liked the 4.8% EBITDA margin that is the highest for any 2Q. Despite above inflation annual growth in all key income items, the stock is trading at just 8x trailing P/E and 3x EV/EBITDA. Operationally, we liked the financials.
" SOKM - NEGATIVE: 2Q23 results for Sok Market came out disappointing vs market expectation as the company posted EBITDA of TRY1.8bn (up 39% qoq and 57% yoy) which was 14.4% below estimated. Net sales came out at TRY24.6bn which was in line with consensus while net profit lagged forecasted by 15.2% at TRY891.5mn. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 7% vs 8.1% market expectation. Growing store network (261 new stores in 2Q23) supported top-line however input inflation surge pressured profitability.
" TRGYO: POSITIVE: Torunlar Gyo posted EBITDA of TRY664mn for 2Q23 ( up 13% qoq and 70% yoy) which was 9% above market expectation. Net sales at TRY867.7mn came out in line with estimated while net profit of TRY663.8mn was 6% higher than forecasted. EBITDA margin for the quarter came out at TRY 76.6% vs 69.2% consensus. We deem the results as positive for the stock.
CORPORATE NEWS:
" The CMB has approved the capital increase for ASELS, NTGAZ and EPLAS shares.



 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.