TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

BIST EXPECTED TO PARE LOSSES AFTER FRIDAY THE 13TH NIGHTMARE
• The BIST100 closed Friday on a deep loss of 1.77%, ending the day at 8113, but on a relatively low turnover of TRY 106bn, due to the escalation of the violence in the Middle East, and expectations of a ground offensive by Israel. As such, the Banks were the most hit, losing 3.41% in value, while the losses among the other sectors was rather uniform. We as a house see the recent bank sell-off as an opportunity to build positions ahead of 3Q23 results, which will point to a q-q improvement in our view.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST, parallel to the optimism in the global markets, due to the recently announced cease fire as well as Biden's speech on television, yesterday.
• PETKM and FROTO were the only blue-chips that closed positively, followed by the flat closing of BIMAS shares, while AKBNK-EKGYO and KCHOL were the most sold.
• For the week, the BIST100 lost 4.15% in value, and whereas the Banks and Industrials managed to lose slightly less than the benchmark by less than 4%, the Conglomerates fell by 5.71%, and the Transportation stocks were the most hit, losing 6.89% in value for the week. The TRY weakened by 0.68% against the USD, but was flat against the Euro, and on the Bonds' side, the 2yr rates fell by a little over 6%, compared to the 2.36% jump in the 10yr rates.
• Now turning our focus onto the juicy commodities front, Brent rose by 7.24% for the week, but 5% of the rise can be attributed to the supposed threat by Qatari officials threatening to cut gas exports if attacks on Gaza continue. However, this news was not confirmed by the Qatari officials, and on the contrary, the Qatari government has tried to de-escalate the War by trying to negotiate prisoner swaps. Due to the escalation of the violence, ounce and gram GOLD prices also close 5.47% and 6.21% higher.
• As of Friday's closing prices, the TRY is trading weaker against both the USD and the Euro at 27.85 and 29.32, respectively, while the DXY has regressed slightly to 106.51, and the 2yr and 10yr Bond yields will open the new week from the 27.69% and 27.27%, respectively.
• On the commodity front, Brent has relaxed slightly to $89.65, despite Biden's speech, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have fallen to $1919 and TRY 1718, respectively.
• On Friday, Turkish Minister of Finance and Treasury, Mr. Mehmet Simsek, stated that they wish to exit from the FX-Protected Savings Program. On the weekly banking data we are observing a clear downshift in the share of FX protected desposits. We need real interest rates on TRY time deposits for that process to speed up.
• Speaking on national TV, US President Joe Biden made some very important and game-changing comments. Accordingly, he said that he believes the Hamas militant group must be eliminated, but there should be a path to a Palestinian state, after top U.S. officials warned the war between Israel and Hamas could escalate. Biden also stated that he did not think American troops would be necessary on the ground as Israel has one of the "finest fighting forces," even as American warships headed to the area amid growing clashes on Israel's northern border with Lebanon.
• According to media reports, the US, Israel and Egypt have agreed to a ceasefire in southern Gaza to begin today at 6 AM GMT, thus coinciding with the re-opening of the Rafah order crossing.
AGENDA
• On the local front, Home Sales figures and the Central Gov't Budget Balance will kick-off the nee week, and followed by the Housing Price Index, Net Change in Non-Resident STOCK/BOND Holdings, and the expected 12 mth Inflation expectations.
• On the international front, the Eurozone and Japan will be releasing the CPI figures, China will disclose its GDP growth rate, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the US will be releasing the Industrial Production, Housing Starts, The Fed Beige Book, and Second-hand home sales. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to speak on the 19th at the New York Economics Club, ahead of the FOMC meeting on November 1st.
CORPORATE
• ALARK - Disclosed that the entire Alziraat Geothermal was acquired by the company's subsidiary, Alarko Agriculture, for 69.4 million TL, and that the capital of Alarko Agriculture has been increased from 120 million TL to 850 million TL.
• ANSGR - Premium production increased by 84.3% to 28.5 billion TL during January-September.
• AVOD - The company subsidiary, Hasat BNO Group, decided to sell its Chrome mining field in Muğla Köyceğiz for 22 million TL.
• FORTE - It was announced that a field of 484 m2 and a plot of 11,364 m2 in Düzce were purchased for 40 million TL.
• RALYH - After the Connection Agreement of G4-Viranşehir-9 GES was approved by TEİAŞ, a Connection Agreement was signed between TEİAŞ and Ral Energy.
• RAYSG - Premium production increased by 143.2% to 8.1 billion TL between January and September.
• TAVHL - Disclosed that the bid for the operation and development of the international passenger and cargo terminals of Lagos Airport in Nigeria for 20 years was continuing with the consortium being selected as the preferred operator.
• TRCAS - The company's 30% subsidiary RWE & Turcas South Power Production decided to conduct a preliminary feasibility study for a GES investment in Denizli. The company also disclosed the decision to distribute a profit share of 337.7 million TL by the company's 30% subsidiary RWE & Turcas South Power Production will be submitted to the General Assembly.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.