TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed yesterday 1.01% higher at 3553, and turnover of TRY 59.8bn, despite a brief profit-taking frenzy due to the disclosure of the slightly higher-than expected US CPI figures.
• The Aviation stocks rose by over 3%, due to the fall in fuel prices, whereas the Banks lagged behind the general gains at the BIST, with a mere rise of just 0.34%, and the Mining stocks faced the harshest sell-offs due to the fall in Gold prices due to expectations of accelerated rate hikes by the Fed. The US stocks stormed back up yesterday from their inflation-induced losses, on speculations that the yearlong selloff had potentially reached a bottom. Yesterday, the expectations of a 75bps rate hike by the FOMC at its next meeting was around 95%, however, after the release of the CPI figures, a 75bps rate hike is now in the bag, and he probability of a 100bps rate hike stands at 16%!
• Now, switching our focus to the BIST30 Advancers and Laggards, SASA, THYAO, and PGSUS led the gains at the BIST100, whereas KOZAA, TCELL, and GBRF were the most sold.
• The TRY had strengthened against the USD to 18.55 yesterday, but has since weakened slightly to 18.57, and the DXY fell to 112.45. On the yields’ side, the 2yr rates rose by 46bps to 16.23%, and the 10yr rates rose by 69bps to 13.50%. The CDS rates closed 3pts higher to 770 yesterday.
• On the commodity front, Brent rose from its ashes to trade at USD 93.78, whereas GOLD is trading weaker at USD 1669 and TRY 997, respectively. Oil gained with the WTI rising back above $89, after a US crude report flagged potential bullish drivers and markets processed hotter-than-expected inflation data. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency earlier warned production cuts agreed by OPEC+ risked causing oil prices to spike and tipping the global economy into recession.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the markets, parallel to the global markets.
NEWS FLOW:
• Last week, Foreigners were net SELLERs of USD 136mn STOCKS and USD 87mn BONDS.
• Similar to the PPI, US CPI print for September also came in at 0.4%, doubling the consensus forecast. While the annual headline figure of 8.2% shows a minor drop from 8.3% of a month earlier, the core CPI that jumped from 6.3% to 6.6% m-m indicates that the FED needs to tighten more to curb down the demand. Following a 75bp rate hike by the FOMC on November 2nd, the likes of a 5th consecutive 75bp hike for December 14th jumped to 69%. The US 10-year bond yield jumped to over 4%, the DXY surged 1%, commodity prices plunged and the S&P 500 futures collapsed over 3% immediately after the announcement of the inflation figures. We believe that 5% policy rate is set to get into the cards for 2023 following such a disappointment on the CPI side, which will further contribute to the prevailing risk-off mood.
• U.S. Treasury's Yellen said yesterday that the CPI data shows more work needed to control inflation.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his proposal to turn Turkey into a gas hub for Europe after deliveries to Germany through the Baltic Sea's Nord Stream pipeline were halted.
• According to media reports, UK Treasury chief, Kwasi Kwarteng has rejected suggestions that the Conservative government would reverse course on economic plans that have suppressed the financial markets.
• China’s inflation rate was recorded at 2.8% rise y/y, its quickest rise in over 2yrs.
• According to the daily Dunya, consumer loans are at their lowest historic level among total loans.
• KOZAL: Disclosed that the UK court has dismissed an appeal hearing of businessman Akin Ipek.
• MPARK: Disclosed that it has bought back 153k shares at TRY 55.55.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, Home Sales figures and the Expected Inflation Rate Survey will be released (Prev. 36.74%), whereas on the international arena, the US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be announced.
Have a great day!
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.