TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed yesterday 1.14% lower at 5323, and turnover of TRY 78.2bn, parallel to the risk-off mood in the global markets, due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, after the Bank was taken over by regulators after massive withdrawals creased a bank run, and regulators also shut down big lender in the crypto industry, Signature Bank, in a bid to prevent a crises contagion, resulting in the pan-European Stoxx 600 to close 2.34% lower, with Commerzbank and Credit Suisse tumbling 12% and 9.4%, respectively! The recent Banking crises in the U.S. has also wiped-out expectations of a 25-50bps rate hike by the FOMC, with Goldman Sachs no longer expecting the Fed to hike rates in March but added that they expect three more rate hikes of 25bps, reiterating their terminal rate expectation of 5.25% to 5.5%, vs their March 7th expectation of 5.75- 6% after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress last week.
• On the local side, both the SVB scare, as well as the credit regulation by the BRSA triggered sell-offs in the Banking stock, accruing to 4.36%, with only the Mining sector stocks managing to diverge positively from their peers.
• SASA, GUBRF, and KOZAL led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, whereas YKBNK, GARAN, and HALKB were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a flat opening.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading flat at 18.97 against the USD, but slightly stronger against the Euro at 20.30, whereas the DXY has risen to 103.90.
• On the commodity front, Brent has once again sunk below the USD 80 level to USD 79.55, as of print, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have lost some of their shine this morning, trading at USD 1902 and 1160, respectively.
• Yesterday, Fitch lowered its Brent oil forecasts, now seeing the Black Gold at USD 90 for 2023 vs USD 95, but at USD 84 and USD 80 for 2024 and 2025, respectively.
• Turkey January Current Account Balance recorded a record deficit of USD 9.85bn, accruing the 12-month deficit to USD 51.7bn, its highest level since February, 2014.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• BIMAS POSITIVE : Posted a staggering net profit of TRY3.4 billion in the fourth quarter, surpassing market projections by a whopping 51%. The deviation stemmed from deferred tax, however even after deducting the deferred tax of TRY837mn, the net profit was still a remarkable 13.2% higher than expected. Additionally, the EBITDA of TRY3.95 billion exceeded expectations by 6.4%, while sales were in line with projections. In 2023, 75% sales growth, 7-7.5% ebitda margin guidance was given.
• BIZIM POSITIVE : Posted strong numbers with EBITDA 9% above the expectations and net profit 56% above the consensus (when adjusted for deferred tax income).
• BIOEN NEGATIVE: Recorded a net profit of TRY117mn in 4Q, surpassing market forecasts by an impressive 133%, largely due to deferred tax income. Nonetheless, operationally, the company had a disappointing quarter, with EBITDA of only TRY210mn, falling short of expectations by 25%, and net sales were 38.4% below the mean market expectation.
• FRIGO NEGATIVE: FRIGO’s 4Q22 financials came out disappointing. Net profit, net sales and EBITDA numbers came out disappointing and declined qoq by 54%, 12% and 32% respectively. Net profit, net sales and EBITDA were all below our expectation. EBITDA margins also eroded qoq by 7.4pp and stood at 26%. The contraction in margins was led by high inflation during last quarter translating into relatively higher COGS to sales for the quarter which deteriorated profitability.
• KLMSN NEGATIVE: Posted TRY69.7mn net profit, TRY10.8mn EBITDA and TRY698.2mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. EBITDA Margin was 1.6% mostly due to inventory loss since company stockpiled inventory ahead of sales and input prices went down which affected company’s profitability. Sales grew 34% QoQ and 24% YoY. EBITDA declined 2% QoQ and 92% YoY. Overall we deem the results negative, however we think that margins will normalize in 2023.
• ODAS NEGATIVE: ODAS reported a lackluster net profit of TRY166mn in Q4, falling short of market estimates by a staggering 86.5%. On the operational front, EBITDA stood at TRY635mn, marking a 55.6% below-par performance compared to mean market estimates. The main cause of analysts' misjudgment this quarter was the significant surge in TEIAS and EPIAS expenses, which inflated the COGS by TRY763mn quarter-on-quarter.
• PENGD SLIGHTLY POSITIVE: Posted 4Q22 net profit of TRY54.6mn which was way above our forecast of TRY1.3mn, it should be note that the driver for 4Q22 net profit was TRY41mn income form investment activities. Net sales exceeded expectation by 21% settling at TRY354mn for the quarter however EBITDA for the quarter came out in line with our anticipated value at TRY34.1mn. EBITDA margin for 4Q22 stood at 9.6% (up by 73bps qoq) vs 11.9%. Net sales and EBITDA increased by 39% qoq and 50% qoq respectively while bottom line turned positive vs last quarters loss. Despite limited debt increase, net debt to EBITDA ratio went up during the quarter to 2.4 compared to 1.86 of last quarter as cash declined owing to working capital needs. We deem results as slightly positive for the company and expect financials to continue to improve 1Q23 onwards.
• YATAS POSITIVE: Yatas reported a 4Q net profit of TRY144.6mn, which fell short of expectations by 25.1%. However, the company has outperformed expectations operationally, with an EBITDA of TRY358mn, exceeding expectations by 23.1%, and an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, which surpassed expectations by 2.8 percentage points. We deem the result positive due to the superior operational profitability achieved
NEWS FLOW:
• AUTOMOTIVE: For Jan-Feb period, production rose by 14% to 223,796 units, exports rose by 8% and local production rose by 51%.
• ASUZU: Forecasts a parallel sales figures to 2022 for 2023, but a slight increase in exports.
• CUSAN: Disclosed that it has signed a scaffolding agreement with Gentas in Gaziantep.
• ULKER: Disclosed that it has rolled over its €75mn loan agreement with the EBRD.
AGENDA:
• There are no major macro data flow, whereas the U.S. CPI figures will be closely watched (BBG Est. +0.4% m/m; +6.0% y/y).

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.