TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed Friday 0.39% higher at 3568, on a turnover of TRY 65.5bn, with the Industrial steering the BIST to gains, whereas the Banks decoupled negatively.
• For the week, the BIST managed to soar 12.19%, with the Aviation stocks seeing the highest returns by 17.61%, and the Banks rose by 11.44% and the Industrials by 11.30%. The REITs lagged behind their peers by rising just 6% and the Mining stocks by 6.32%, due to tightening fiscal policies from the major Central Banks. VESTL, SASA and TCELL led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, whereas HALKB, VAKBN and KOZAA, were the most sold. For the week, the most bought stocks were BAGFS, KONTR and TUKAS, whereas the most sold were SKBNK, ISGYO and OTKAR.
• The TRY weakened on Friday to 18.58, but is currently trading slightly stronger at 18.56, after having had strengthened against the USD for the week by 0.28%. The DXY is trading flat at 112.85, and the 5yr CDS rates ended the week 7pts higher at 773, after having had opened the week from the 782 level.
• The 2yr bond yields fell by 14bps to 15.57%, whereas the long-term yields rose by 50bps to 12.06%.
• Now changing gears to the commodity front, after the 2mn b/d production cut by the OPEC+, Brent closed the week higher at USD 97.78, with especially Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi bearing the brunt of the criticism from the US, but has since subsided to USD 96.29, in-line with expectations of continued rate hikes from the FOMC.
• Today, we expect a flat-negative opening, due to the negative trading mood in the Asian markets and US Futures.
• Ounce and gram GOLD prices fell sharply to USD 1688, and TRY 1007, due to expectations of higher rate hike expectations from the FOMC, after the NFP figures- the probability of a 75bps rate hike from the FOMC currently stands at 94%.
• Speaking to CNNTurk news channel, Treasury and Finance Minister, Nureddin Nebati, stated that Turkey will take steps to deliver single-digit interest rates, as pledged by President Erdogan, and that Turkey is working on a plan to lower the cost of bank loans extended to small businesses, extend their loan limits and provide grace periods with no repayment. Wage adjustments due to soaring inflation are also expected to be implemented in December.
• According to Ukrainian media, the office of President Zelensky was destroyed by a missile strike. This may raise GOLD prices higher due to increased tension.
• Please note today that the MSCI will announce its November 2022 Semi-Annual Index Review, which will take effect on December 1st, 2022.
NEWS FLOW:
• SISE: According to the daily Dunya, Sisecam has been awarded a TRY 2.1bn investment incentive for its Eskisehir plant.
• The BIST stated that the shares of ALKIM, CCOLA, ULKER, TURSG, and ISFIN will be closed on the Futures platform for the month of November.
• The September NFP number is 263k vs the consensus of 250k. Unemployment rate on the other hand is a mere 3.5% as compared to the 3.7% expectation. Such a tight labor market is set to solidify the likes of a 75bp rate hike in the next FOMC decision on November 2nd. This unexpectedly strong job market is likely to further push up US bond yields, strengthen DXY and pressure down commodities as well as the equities.
AGENDA:
• The local agenda will kick-off with the Unemployment rate, and followed by the Current Account Balance (Est. USD -3.10bn), Industrial Production (Es.t: m/m: 3.0% vs y/y: 2.7%), Retail Trade, Net Weekly change in Foreigners’ Stock and Bond Investments, Home Sale Figures, and the Expected 12-month Inflation figures.
• On the global front, the US Inflation readings will take precedence over pretty much all data disclosures, followed by the FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Confidence, whereas the IP will be disclosed in the Eurozone.
• Also, the IMF will be releasing its Global Economic Outlook Report on Tuesday, and Christine Lagarde will be speaking on Wednesday, as well as Fed speakers.
 

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.