TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST ended the final day of the week on a slight gain of 0.24%, as the US NPF figures came perfectly in-line with expectations, closing the day at 4924, but on a low turnover of TRY 39bn, both to the cautious mood by local investors, as well as the absence of scare foreigners. Many leading international stock exchanges will remain closed today due to Easter.
• The Mining stocks continued to outpace their opponents, followed by the Energy and REITs, whereas the Banks diverged negatively from their peers, due to the continuing strict regulations against the sector.
• KOZAA, ODAS and EKGYO were the most bought BIST30 stocks, whereas TCELL, ENKAI and ASELS found themselves of the wrong end of the listings.
• For the week, the BIST managed to scrape a gain of 2.32%, thanks to the gains in the Transportation and Energy stocks, whereas the Banks fell by 2.78%.
• On the commodity side, Brent rose by another 6%, and ounce and gram GOLD prices rose by 1.93% and 2.33% for the week, though gold is coming off from last week’s peak as US rates inch up and probability of a 25bp rate hike on May 3rd meeting increased up to 64% from less than 50% in early last week.
• Brent has risen to USD 84.88, and ounce and gram GOLD are trading lower at USD 1993 and TRY 1234, respectively.
• Today, we expect a flattish to positive opening at the BIST, parallel to the slight positive mood in the global markets.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading at 19.25 against the USD, but slightly stronger against the Euro at 20.98, whereas the DXY is higher at 102.24.
• On Friday, NFP came in parallel to expectations at 236k for March (Feb:326k), which could be deemed as the goldilocks outcome as the market could have feared of a recession, should there be a much weaker figure, a stronger outcome on the other hand, could have increased the odds of more rate hikes, scaring the market. Unemployment ticked down to 3.5% (Exp&Feb:3.6%) and avg hourly earnings growth cut pace to 4.2% (Exp:4.3%, Feb:4.6%), both of which are FED desired outcomes. Relieving numbers overall.
NEWS FLOW:
• AUTOMOTOVE: Exports reached their historic level in March on an m/m basis, soaring by 22.8% to USD 3.3bn, and for the 3m2023, exports rose by 15.8% to USD 8.619bn.
• KOZAL: Disclosed that it has found a gold reserve with a potential size of 614k ounces, amounting to USD 1.2bn in Kayseri. Production is planned for 2024, and production will occur at the company’s Himmetdede facilities.
• AKSEN: Disclosed that its subsidiary in Ghana has signed a 20 year agreement to produce and supply 350MW energy.
• DGGYO: Disclosed that the cancellation of the 1/1000 project in Maslak has been approved.
• DOGUB/TMPOL: Short-selling and margin trading will be banned until May 9th.
• ODAS: Disclosed that its natural gas conversion plant in Uzbekistan has been approved by the Ministry of Energy.
• QUAGR: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 4.6mn procurement agreement in the construction of Nidapark Bomonti
• TCELL: Disclosed that its 2g agreement has been extended till 2029 for €120mn + VAT. Furthermore, €81.6mn payment has been made, with the remainder to be paid by 2 years.
• Today, ALKA/KLKM and SKBNK will distribute gross TRY 0.53; TRY 1.00 and TRY 0.05/share dividends.
AGENDA:
• The Current Account Balance (Est. USD -8.45bn) and the Unemployment Rate will kick-off the new week, followed by the Industrial Production, Retail Trade WDA, and Weekly Foreigners’ Net STOKC/BOND investments.
• On the international front, the US Inflation and FOMC Minutes will be closely watched, followed by the Budget Balance and Industrial Production, whereas the Eurozone will disclose its Retail Sales and Industrial Production.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.