TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed yesterday 1.05% higher at 5438, with a turnover of TRY 86.4bn, thanks to the sharp gains among the Banks-more specifically, the private ones, with both GARAN and ISCTR closing limit-up, and YKBNK and AKBNK following close behind. Due to the hawkish statements, coupled with the already priced-in poor quarterly financials, the Mining stocks continued to underperform their peers, losing another 3% in value-perhaps not a bad time to start buying GOLD ahead of the wedding season…
• On the BIST30 side, besides the Banks, KCHOL and TCELL also showed strong gains, whereas KOZAA, KRDMD, and KOZAL were the most sold, alongside EREGL
• Today, we expect a flat opening in line with global markets. Last night’s news of an additional 10% corporate tax on tax exempt items to finance the earthquake costs is likely to have a limited downbeat impact as it is non-recurring. According to a new regulation, companies will pay an additional 10% tax on the amount of exceptions and deductions that they had deducted from their 2022 corporate income earnings.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading a tad weaker against the USD at 18.95, as well against the Euro at 20 flat, whereas the DXY is flat at 105.55. Both the 2yr and 10yr bond yields remained flat at 10.50% and 11.85%, respectively.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading flat this morning at USD 82.50, and ounce and gram GOLD prices are also relatively calm at USD 1815 and TRY 1106, respectively, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, though repeated what he said the day before, was a little more soft, as there were no new revelations, causing for a mix close in the markets. He did not specify how much they will hike rates on their March 22 meeting, with Citibank the latest to pencil-in a 50bps rate hike, with the terminal interest rates hovering around 5.50-5.75% range. Please note that prior to the next FOMC meeting, the NFP will be announced tomorrow, and the Inflation, next week from the U.S.
• Barclays disclosed that it sees Brent crude prices to average around USD 92, cutting its earlier forecast by USD 6, citing a more resilient Russian oil supply than previously thought, and cut the WTI crude forecast by USD 7 to USD 87.
• The Fed’s Beige Book revealed yesterday a slight growth in economic activity.
• Turkey disclosed that it will impose an additional 40% customs duty on electric vehicles made in China, according to Bloomberg, not boding well with BYD, the world’s second-largest EV manufacturer, which recently signed an MOU to enter the local market with Turkish distributor AJL to sell passenger and LCVs.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• CUSAN POSITIVE: posted TRY79mn net profit, TRY149mn EBITDA and TRY566mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 20% above our expectation, net sales is 21% above our expectation whereas EBITDA was in line with our expectations due to lower than expected EBITDA margin (31% expected vs 26% realized). We deem the results positive even though company is not able to sell intermediate product billet on this quarter, revenue is still up 30% YoY. Even though revenue growth is lower than inflation, considering the fact that billet sales were 30% of the sales in Q4 2021, we deem revenue growth promising in this quarter.
• MPARK NEUTRAL: All key items are in line with expectations, the net profit of TRY581mn that surpassed twofold the consensus is driven by deferred tax reversals. Operationally, the company delivered a solid EBITDA of TRY713mn in line with market expectations, while demonstrating a significant 388bps qoq increase in EBITDA margin. The company stated that EBITDA margin increased due to decreased volume of the outsourced PCR test service expenses and on the back of effective inventory management, additionally base effect stemming from the one-off Libyan bad debt expenses.
• ORGE POSITIVE: The company’s 4Q22 financials came out better than expected with net profit of TRY139mn, EBITDA of TRY 94mn and net sales of TRY226mn, all of them exceeding forecasts. Net porofit came out 121% above anticipation while EBITDA and net sales exceeded consensus by 89% and 51% respectively. EBITDA margin also stood at 41.5% vs market expectation of 33%.
NEWS FLOW:
• AKBNK: Disclosed that shareholder Dilek and Sevil Sabanci have both applied to make 25,431, 894 shares tradeable at the BIST
• ENKAI: Disclosed that it was awarded a €1.32bn to build a 109km motorway project in North Macedonia with its partner Bechtel, estimated to be completed in 2027. The project will include the construction of 34 bridges, 34 overpasses and 24 underpasses. As this news was disclosed during trading yesterday, it may have already been priced.
• ULKER: Disclosed that it has signed a syndication deal with 5 international banks amounting to USD 35mn and Euro 150mn.
AGENDA:
• Foreigners’ weekly net STOCK/BOND holdings will be released on the local front, whereas the U.S. Jobless Claims will be followed on the international front, as well as the China Inflation figures.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.