TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST extended its record closing once again, rising by 2.72% to 4332, peaking at 4339, with a hefty volume of 107.8k. The Banks led the gains, rising by 3.35%, after lagging behind its peers, with the Conglomerates also joining in the festivities, whereas the Energy stocks stopped for a breather, falling by 0.49% after last week’s sharp gains.
• As such, EREGL once again closed limit-up after disclosing its formidable iron ore reserve, and was followed by SAHOL and KOZAA, whereas SASA fell by 1.46% after having its short-selling and credit ban extended by another month, as well as ARCLK shares.
• Today, we expect a slightly positive opening at the BIST, however, the strengthening of the TRY may create an overhang on export-oriented companies.
• The TRY is trading considerably stronger against the USD at 18.53, whereas the DXY is flat at 110.38. The 2yr yields rose by 11bps to 14.75%, and the 10yr rates by 46bps to 12.03%.
• On the commodity front, BRENT has fallen to USD 96.81, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading lower at USD 1669 and TRY 993, respectively.
• Head of the Chambers and Commodity Exchanges stated yesterday that inflationary accounting was necessary for companies. We believe that the change should be done concurrently with IFRS and tax base financials not to over-hurt the cash positions of corporates.
3Q22 RESULTS:
• ISCTR (NEUTRAL): In line with the expectations Isbank posted a TRY15bn net profit in its 3Q22 financials. Quarterly annualized ROE of 44% is behind the private peer group’s 60% level due to the differential in the booking of CPI linkers. TL loan deposit spread improved by only 20bp, which is one of the lowest expansions among peers. We expect muted market reaction to these numbers.
• VAKBN (SLIGHTLY POSITIVE): Vakifbank posted a TRY5.6bn net profit for 3Q22, which is in line with our forecast but 14% above the consensus mean. Although the headline annualized quarterly ROE is 26%, the figure could have been 52% had the bank not set aside TRY5.5bn of discretionary provisions for the quarter. Loan-deposit spread is down 30bp, which is the deepest core spread evolution so far.
• SUWEN (POSITIVE): Suwen posted revenues amounting to TRY304mn, up by 155% yoy , EBITDA TRY108.8mn up by 141% yoy, Net Income of TRY74.1mn up by 247%for the third quarter. Profitability wise, numbers released are stronger than our expectation. There may be an upside risk and year end numbers could be stronger than our expectation.
• PETKM: (NEGATIVE) NI: TRY 1.5bn vs Consensus TRY 1.05bn vs TRY 1.702bn y/y. However, the numbers are operationally weak. EBITDA is 23% below expectations. The EBITDA margin is a mere 4.8% vs 6.5% expectation. The beat on the bottom-line stems predominantly from deferred tax reversal as well as investment income. Net debt to EBITDA climbed to 2.7x from 0.9x a year earlier.
• AKSEN: (NEUTRAL): NI: TRY 1.45bn vs Consensus TRY 1.519bn vs TRY 325mn y/y, EBITDA also in-line with expectations coming in at TRY 1.98bn vs Consensus TRY 1.96bn.
• EKGYO: (NEGATIVE) NI: TRY 644mn vs Consensus TRY 677mn vs TRY 331mn. Disappointing results across the board.
• INDES: (POSITIVE) The EBITDA is 33% better than expected and the net profit is 20% above the expectations.
AGENDA:
There are no major local data releases, whereas on the international front, the Eurozone September Retail Sales figures

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.