TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" Heading into the last week before the critical May 14th elections, the BIST100 closed Friday on a sharp loss of 1.86% at 4401, with a very low turnover of TRY 32.8bn, as investors are on the "wait-and-see" mode ahead of Sunday's presidential elections, thus diverging negatively from the international markets.
" The Banks fell by 1.66%, whereas the Industrials and the Mining stocks fell more than the general benchmark.
" GUBRF, thanks to its capital increase via bonus issue, topped the BIST30 leaders' list, and was followed by PGSUS and BIMAS, whereas SASA was duly punished for its poor quarterly financials, and was followed by HEKTS and TOASO shares.
" Due to elections related risks, increasing TRY time deposit rates and lack of fresh funding for brokerage houses to finance leveraged trades BIST100 index fell by 4.70% w-w, with the Banks dropping 4.06%, and the Industrials by 6.33%, due to the largely disappointing quarterly results, with the Transportation stocks faring better than its peers with a loss of 1.82%.
" The TRY weakened slightly against the USD and the Euro by a little over a quarter-point, where the main headline was on the Bond side, as the 2y short-term yields fell by an eye whopping 27%, vs the 0.85% drawback in the 10yr rates.
" On the commodity front, Brent fell by 6.24% due to global recession woes, and both ounce and gram GOLD rose by 1.65% and 1.36%, respectively.
" Today, we expect a sideways opening at the BIST.
" As of yesterday's close, the TRY is flat trading at 19.50 against the USD, but slightly weaker against the Euro at 21, and the DXY has regressed slightly to 101.11. On the Bonds' side, the 2yr and 10yr rates will start the new week from the 9.87% and 12.78% levels, respectively, after rising on Friday, with the increase in the short-term rates at 227bps.
" On the commodity front, Brent has risen slightly to USD 75.70, and ounce and gram GOLD are at USD 2022 and TRY 1268, respectively.
" Foreigners were net SELLERS of USD 178mn STOCKS, but net BUYERS of USD 11mn last week, bringing the total sales of Turkish assets ytd to USD 5.04bn.
" Today, the UK markets are closed to trading, and BIMAS, SAHOL and TTKOM are expected to release their financials after the markets close today.
1Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
" AGHOL POSITIVE: Aghol posted a net profit of TRY661mn in Q1, 18% above our net profit expectation of TRY560mn. The performance was mainly driven by resurgence in auto segment with Ebitda growth of 232% y-y. Moreover, Mgros knocked it out of the park by exceeding market projections by a staggering 70%, settling at TRY560mn. Group companies have shown their mettle by weathering the storm despite earthquake in Turkey economic crisis in Pakistan and ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Although we view these results as a feather in Aghol's cap, we do not expect positive market reaction since its subsidiaries already disclosed the financials.
" KRDMD NEUTRAL: posted a net profit of TRY642mn in the first quarter of this year, 12% above market expectations. Although its annual net profit decreased by 45%, it switched to profit after a loss of TRY149mn compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA came in at TRY1.1bn in line with market expectations. EBITDA per tonne decreased by 56% y-y to $94 in 1Q23.
" KORDS: Operationally Positive, Net Profit Disappoints: The company posted 1Q23 net sales and EBITDA of TRY5.2bn and TRY431mn respectively. EBITDA for the quarter exceeded expectations by 40% while net sales came out 27% higher than forecasted. The EBITDA margin of 8.3% was better than 7.6% consensus. Net profit however stood at TRY34mn which was 47% below estimates. Bottom-line was hit because of high net financial expenses and it could have been almost at the breakeven had there been no deferred tax reversal.
NEWS FLOW:
" SMRTG: Disclosed signing a USD 49.3mn turnkey agreement.
AGENDA:
" On the local front this week, the Cash Budget Balance will kick-off the new week, and followed by the Unemployment, Industrial Production, Current Account Balance, and the Net Change in Weekly Foreigners' STOCK/BOND holdings.
" Meanwhile, our international peers will be releasing the US Inflation figures, alongside the Eurozone and Germany, and the BOE will disclose its policy rate.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.