TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

BIST REACTS POSITIVELY AS INVESTORS RETURN TO THE BIST TO HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION
• The BIST100 opened the new week and month with a hungry buying appetite, closing the day 6.70% higher, with a turnover of TRY 62.3bn, as the investigation into last month’s market fraud caused for the sensational loss in the Banks, once again encouraged investors to park their money in the BIST as to hedge against inflation.
• The Banks led the gains, with all major banks closing limit-up, thanks to risk-on mood in global markets as well as the news alert from across the Pond that the US Supreme Court would hear HALKB’s case for immunizing companies owned by foreign governments from criminal prosecution, alongside the Aviation stocks, with only the REITs and the Industrial stocks underperforming the benchmark. It is also worth noting that the BIST30 stocks, the large-cap stocks, outperformed the smaller-cap stocks.
• Accordingly, we will be looking to see when investors will begin to shift their money from the blue-chip stocks to the smaller-mid cap stocks.
• On the BIST30 side, the stocks that lagged behind the gains in the gauge were VESTL, ARCLK and GUBRF shares.
• Today, parallel to the global markets, we expect a positive opening at the BIST.
• The TRY strengthened slightly against the USD to 18.54, and whereas the 2yr bond yields rose by 15bps to 15.21%, the 10yr rates were relatively flat, falling by just by 3bps to 11.96%. The DXY retreated yesterday to just below the 112 level, and is currently trading flat at 111.59. The 5yr CDS rates fell by 10pts yesterday to 773.
• On the back of the expected production cut at Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting, Brent rose to USD 88.35, after having peaked at USD 89.46 during the day, and is currently trading higher, just below the USD 89 level.
• IMF Head, Kristalina Georgieva said yesterday that a global recession can be avoided if governments’ fiscal policies were consistent with monetary policy tightening, and the UN called for the FED and other central banks to halt interest rate hikes amid fears of plunging economies into recession, followed by prolonged stagnation if they continue to hike interest rates.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the strength of the dollar has potential spillover implications for the global economy, but at the end of the day the central bank is focused on the US economy.
• Goldman Sachs disclosed yesterday that they expect the Turkish Central bank to reduce interest rates by 100bps every month until the end of the year, thus bringing the policy rate to 9%-this is the general feeling among local traders as well-for interest rates to fall to 9%.
NEWS FLOW:
• According to Bloomberg, state natural gas provider, BOTAS, has asked Russia for delayed gas payments amid the energy crunch to 2024.
• Turkey September PMI figures fell to 46.9% vs. last month’s reading of 47.4%
• Turkey September CPI came inline with the markets expectation of 83.45% y/y, and at 3.08% m/m vs. the estimate 3.15% and last month’s reading of 1.46%. PPI rose to 151.50% vs. last month’s rate of 143.75%.
AGENDA:
On the local menu today, we have the Sep. REER, which was 52.84 last month, whereas our US investors will be following the Durable Goods Orders and JOLTS Job Opening figures, and the PPI will be followed in the Eurozone.
 
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.