TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed near half percent lower yesterday at 4486, after dipping at 4311, and with a turnover of TRY 47.6bn. The BIST was well on its way to paring its losses until Russia disclosed that Ukraine attempted to assassinate President Putin in a drone attack, that once again triggered short-term panic sales, but later recovered after Ukraine refuted the allegations.
• The Banks fell by 0.84%, and the Industrials by 1.64%, whereas the Transportation and Conglomerates diverged positively from their peers, THYAO saw eager investor interest ahead of its financial releases.
• TUPRS, GUBRF and SAHOL took the top 3 slots among the BIST30 stocks, whereas the KOZAL group shares still can’t seem to catch a break, as KOZAL, KOZAA and HEKTS were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST, at par with the international markets.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 19.48 but is continuing to weaken against the Euro at 21.60, and the DXY has slid to 101.08. On the Bonds’ side, the 2yr rates fell below the 8% level by dropping another 53bps, whereas the 10yr yields went north by 23bps to 13.10%.
• On the commodity front, Brent has risen by nearly a dollar/barrel to USD 73.05, and ounce and gram GOLD are trading slightly higher at 2043 and TRY 1280, after their sharp rise after the FOMC meeting.
• Yesterday, the FOMC increased policy rates by a unanimous 25bps, as widely expected, for a 10th straight session, however, the post-meeting statement deleted “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal, which spurred the risk-on mode, as investors read that to signal an end to potential rate hikes. Chair Jerome Powell noted that the policy-setting committee thinks it will take time for inflation to come down and it would not be appropriate to cut rates, adding that they will continue to monitor market data, which pared the earlier gains in the US markets.
• Türkiye April CPI rose by 2.39% m/m, and annual inflation came it at 42.68%, vs the market expectation of 2.70% and 44.10%, respectively. Despite the lower-than expected readings, food inflation continued to soar, whereas utility costs fell by 1.47% m/m.
1Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• AEFES: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE: 1Q23 net sales came in line with forecasts at TRY24.6bn. EBITDA for the quarter came out at TRY4bn exceeding expectation by 11% while net profit stood at TRY409mn which was 17% below estimated. The company posted EBITDA margin of 16.4% for 1Q23 vs market expectation of 14.7%.
• AKGRT: NEUTRAL: The company posted TRY131mn net profit in the first quarter in line with expectations. Net profit grew 152% yoy as the company had posted a net loss of TRY254mn for 1Q22.
• BRISA: POSITIVE: The company posted net sales, EBITDA and net profit came out at TRY4.7bn, TRY963.5mn and TRY532.8mn respectively. Net sales and EBITDA exceeded market estimate by 5% and 9% while net profit came out 7% above market consensus. 1Q23 EBITDA margin stood 81bps higher than forecast at 20.7%.
• GWIND: NEUTRAL: 1Q23 financials came out in line with market consensus, net sales stood at TRY337mn while EBITDA and net profit came out at TRY268mn and TRY236mn respectively. The company posted EBITDA margin of 79.5% which was also in line with expectation.
• MGROS: POSITIVE: 1Q23 financial results came out positive as net sales, EBITDA and net profit exceeded expectations by 8%, 22% and 70% respectively. The company posted TRY27.2bn net sales, EBITDA of TRY1.8bn and net profit of TRY560mn. EBITDA margin also came out 75bps higher than forecast at 6.5%. Migros revised its previous consolidated sales growth expectation of 75-80% for 2023 upwards to 80-85%. The company’s consolidated EBITDA margin target for 2023 is 7.0-7.5%. Also, the company’s aim of opening approx. 365 new stores for 2023 was not changed, the investment expenditure target of approx. TRY4bn was also preserved.
• THYAO: SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE: 1Q23 net sales were in line with the market estimate at TRY82.1bn however the company posted EBITDA of TRY11.9bn which was 8% lower than expectation. Net profit of TRY4.4bn, however, came out 43% higher than consensus. Improved operating performance, increase in income from investment activities (especially interest income), increased net finance income ( value increases from derivative instruments and interest income increases) and the depreciation of TRY stand out as the reasons for the growth in 1Q23 net profit.
• TSKB: POSITIVE: TSKB reported 1Q23 net income of TRY1,407mn which was 6.2% above market consensus of TRY1,325mn.
NEWS FLOW:
• BASGZ and YUNSA will distribute gross TRY 1.16 and TRY 5.11/share gross dividends today.
AGENDA:
• On the local front today, Foreigners’ net STOCK/BOND weekly investment changes will be monitored, as well as the Inflation Assessment Report, whereas on the global front, the ECB will release its interest rate decision, with the consensus predicting a 25bps rate hike, with a slight 50bps, and the US will be greeting the Jobless Claims figures, as it does on a weekly basis.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.