TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" The BIST closed yesterday 0.42% higher at 4082, peaking at 4099, before seeing some small-scale profit-takings, ahead of last night's much anticipated FOMC meeting. The Banks and Aviation stocks both trailed the gauge by 1.63% each, whereas the Energy stocks, amid Turkey's potential to become the next natural gas hub to Europe, continued to lure investors into the sector.
" ASELS replace SASA yesterday as the most bought BIST30 stock, thanks to its €44.9mn deal, and was followed by TCELL and KRDMD, whereas the most sold were ISCTR, SASA, due the underperformance of its financials signalling there may be problems in paradise, and YKBNK.
" Today, parallel to the gains in the international markets, we expect a slightly-negative opening at the BIST.
" The TRY is trading weaker against the USD at 18.62, and the DXY has risen to just below the 112 level to 111.90. The 2yr rates rose slightly by 6bps to 14.96%, whereas the 10yrs yields fell by 8bps to 12.43%. The 5yr CDS rate continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace, by 2.5% pts to 657.
" On the commodity front, Brent has risen to USD 95.34, as of print, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have fallen to USD 1637 and TRY 980, respectively.
" In line with expectations, the FED's FOMC increased the federal funds rate by 75bp. Initially the markets celebrated the newly added section indicating that the FED will consider the tightening of monetary policy so far, which intensified the expectation of slower pace of rate hikes going forward. Risk-on mood dissipated on Powell's hawkish tone at the QA session. It would be premature to assume that the next rate hike will be limited to 50bp as payroll and inflation data to be announced until December 14th will be considered by the FOMC. Latest employment data from ADP to Jolts, as well as ISM manufacturing figures, increases the likes of a hawkish move in our view. In-all, we anticipate higher bond yields, stronger USD and weak risk appetite to prevail.
" The US 10yr yields had fallen to 3.96% after the release of the 75bps rate hike decision from the FOMC, but rose sharply to 4.10% due to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish tone during the QA session.
" Yesterday, Russia-Turkey and the Ukraine, once again revived the wheat export corridor.
3Q22 RESULTS:
" AEFES: VERY STRONG NUMBERS / STOCK OF THE DAY NI: TRY:2.08bn vs Consensus TRY 1.35bn vs TRY 556mn y/y. Sales TRY 29.8bn vs TRY 11.8bn y/y. EBITDA TRY 6.72bn vs TRY 2.36bn y/y; EBITDA Margin: 22.6% vs 20% y/y. For 2022: Sees Low-to-Mid Single Digit FY Sales Vol. Growth; Low-40s Net Sales Revenue Growth; FCF generation comparable to 2021; Expects higher cost environment, esp. 4Q22.
" TUPRS: POSITIVE OPENING UNDERWAY NI: TRY 11.9bn vs Consensus TRY 7.95bn vs TRY 988mn y/y. EBTIDA beat expectations by coming in at TRY 18.5bn vs the consensus TRY 14.66bn. All-in-all, we expect a positive opening, but may see margins eroding going forth.
" AYGAZ NI TRY 764mn in-line with the consensus, as well as EBITDA at TRY 266mn.In-line with the strong net income releases from its subsidiaries, we may see KCHOL financials to also reflect positively.
" THYAO: Results may trigger profit taking. Rising revenues and passenger count, reflect positively onto bottom-line. NI: TRY 27.12bn vs. Consensus TRY 23.74bn vs TRY 6.3bn y/y. Sales TRY 108.4bn vs TRY 29bn y/y.
" FROTO: Bottom-line misses the target. NI: TRY 3.82bn vs Consensus TRY 4.37bn vs TRY 1.89bn y/y. Increases its export forecast for 2022 to 410,000 to 420,000 units, saw 330,000 to 340,000; Local sales 80,000 to 90,000 units, saw 90,000 to 100,000; CAPEX €720mn-€770mn vs €620mn- €670mn.
" GWIND: NI: TRY 287mn vs Consensus TRY 230mn vs TRY 78.6mn y/y. Revenue TRY 345mn vs TRY 151mn y/y
" AKSA: NI: TRY 430mn vs Consensus TRY 788mn vs TRY 344mn y/y

AGENDA:
" The October CPI figures will be hitting the local headlines today, consensus 3.60% m/m and 85.60% y/y, as well as the Foreigners' Weekly Stock/Bond investments, whereas on the international side, US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, and Durable Goods Orders will be released. Elsewhere, the BOE will be releasing its policy rate, and ECB Head, Christine Lagarde will be speaking.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.