• The BIST100 managed to close yesterday in the positive territory, rising by 0.82% to 4752, and turnover of TRY 118.3bn, but not before falling to as low as 4480, just a tad above the circuit breaker line, from where we observed bargain hunters going shopping.
• The Banks continued to diverge negatively from its peers, and as we had warned before, we recommended using the 4Q22 stellar results as an exit opportunity, whereas the Energy and the Conglomerates were yesterday’s best performing stocks, as well as the Automotives. The global markets also cheered what was presumed to be a more dovish Powell, and the Nasdaq was lifted by Meta’s sales figures beating expectations.
• SASA, HEKTS and FROTO ranked in the top 3 among the BIST30 stocks, whereas GUBRF and TKFEN, both the fertilizers, saw heavy sell-offs, and were joined at the bottom 3 by VESTL.
• Today, we expect the positive mood to continue from yesterday, however, the possible terror attack and further warnings and consulate closures, may dampen the mood and give way to profit-taking, heading into the weekend.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading at 18.82 against the USD, and 20.51 against the Euro, whereas the DXY is trading slightly higher at 101.83. The 2yr bond yields fell by 7bps to 10.52%, whereas the 10yr yields were unchanged at 10.75%. The CDS rates fell by 16pts yesterday to 512.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading considerably lower at USD 81.92, and both ounce and gram GOLD have pared their previous day’s gains and are currently at USD 1915 and TRY 1160, respectively.
• Both the BOE and the ECB raised interest rates by 50bps yesterday, as widely expected. However, ECB President “Laggard”, in contrast to her Fed counterpart, stated that “Even though headline inflation had begun to fall in the eurozone too, it was still “far too high”, and underlying price pressures remained “alive and kicking, thus signalling continued rate hikes.
• According to Bloomberg, a bipartisan group of lawmakers advised President Biden that Congress shouldn’t consider F-16 fighter jet sales to Turkey until the country ratifies protocols accepting Sweden and Finland as members of NATO.
• SISE is expected to release its quarterly financials today (Cons: NI: TRY 4.5bn).
4q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS
• YKBNK: Neutral. Posted a net income of TRY17.4bn, corresponding to 390% y-y and 8% q-q growth. The result is 5% better than consensus mean of TRY16.5bn, while our estimate stood at TRY18bn. We expect muted market reaction to these numbers. YKBNK achieved 56.5% RoTE and 5.4% ROA in 2022. The management aims for high twenties RoE for 2023, that is parallel to that of peers, which will be demanding in our view. For 2023, the management is guiding for 40% increase in TRY loans, while FX loans are set to decrease, due to further deleveraging. The bank that completed the year with a net interest margin of 9.1%, expects this ratio to be in higher than 5%. Ykbnk foresees a 60% fee growth, and less than 100% opex growth for 2023. Total CoR guidance is 100bps vs 147bps for 2022.
• TOASO: Positive. 4Q22 numbers are very strong. Tofas posted TRY3,498mn net profit, TRY4,278mn EBITDA and TRY23,474mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 28%, net sales is 6%, the EBITDA is 17% above the consensus mean. EBITDA margin is realised as 18.2% vs 16.6% consensus. Total sales volume increased by 34% y/y to 84.2k units. The company's net cash position, which was TL810mn as of 3Q22, increased q/q to TL5bn at the end of 4Q22. According to Tofas's 2023 guidance that was also announced with the results, total domestic light vehicle market is projected at 775-825k vehicles (2022: 783k), Tofas's domestic sales expectation is 155-165k/vehicle (2022: 150k) and production guidance is 215-235k/vehicle (2022: 264k). Export volume forecast is set at 70-80k/vehicle (2022: 121k) lastly, the planned capital expenditure for the whole year is expected to be EUR100mn (2022: EUR46mn).
• ANHYT: POSITIVE: Anadolu Hayat posted TRY595mn profit in its 4Q22 financials, surpassing the TRY337mn consensus mean by 76%. We expect positive market reaction to these numbers.
NEWS FLOW:
• Last week, Foreign investors in Turkey were net BUYERs of USD 23mn STOCKS, and slight SELLERs of USD 0.5mn BONDS. Since the beginning of 2023, the non-residents sold US$596mn worth of stocks. The share of foreigners in BIST’s free float is still around 29.50% from while their share in bonds is 0.80%.
• Turkish Capital Markets Board postpones deadline for funds to close reverse repo transactions to Sept. 30 from April 28.
• BIMAS: Disclosed that it has allocated up to TRY 750mn for share buyback program.
• Uptick rule on short selling will be applied automatically if main Turkish stock index falls 3% or more, starting today.
• KOZAL: The CMB has approved KOZAL’s application to raise its capital to TRY 3,202,500,000 from TRY 3,050,000,000.
• KOZAL: Disclosed that the case against the company from complainants was favoured for KOZAL.
AGENDA:
• On the local front today, the inflation numbers will be released (Est. +4% m/m & +53.80% y/y), whereas in the U.S., the most important data flow will be the NFP (Est. +190k), as well as the Unemployment rate, Earnings, and the PMI, as well as the Eurozone PMI and PPI figures.
TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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Yasal Uyarı
Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.
TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )
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