TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

CBRT Minutes Hint at Further Normalization and Balanced Growth
" The BIST managed to close slightly positive yesterday, rising by 0.14% to 7918, and turnover of TRY 151.2bn, despite the 3.64% losses in the Banking stocks, whereas the Industrials and Energy stocks rose by 2.28% and 3.96%, respectively.
" Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST, parallel to the global markets, as the PCE, considered to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose in-line with market expectations at 3.3%, thus levying the US markets higher yesterday, fuelling hopes that the FED could pause its monetary tightening.
" The KOZAL group shares were yesterday's best performing blue-chip stocks amid speculations of a possible merger between KOZAL-KOZAA and IPEKE, and were followed by VESTL shares, whereas after last week's sharp gains after announcing the merger of its subsidiaries under one roof, ISCTR faced profit-takings and fell by nearly 5%, and was followed by AKBNK and TCELL shares. Similar to the KOZAL group speculations, CIMSA shares also closed limit-up, and group shares AFYON and AKNCS followed close behind at 7.28% and 5.05%, respectively, amid speculations of the merger of CIMSA and AFYON cement companies.
" Currently, the TRY is trading at 26.67, and 28.94 against the Euro, while the DXY is at 103.61. Both the 2yr and 10yr Bond rate rose slightly by 2bps and 1bps to 21.55% and 19.30%, respectively.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trading at USD 86.48, and ounce and gram GOLD are USD 1941 and TRY 1664, respectively.
" The Minutes from last week's MPC meeting that showed a bold rate hike of 750bps, guided for the continuing and gradual simplifying of the existing micro and macro prudential framework in a way that will increase the functionality of market mechanisms, and strengthen macro financial stability.
o In this context, regulations to increase the share of Turkish lira deposits will strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism. In addition to interest rate hikes, the Board will continue to take selective credit and quantitative tightening decisions that will support the monetary tightening process. With these decisions, it is aimed to balance the excesses in Turkish lira liquidity and consumption demand and to increase the effectiveness of monetary policy, while policy rates, which are the main policy instruments, affect monetary, financial conditions and expectations.
" Türkiye's economy grew above expectations of 3.5% at 3.8%, thanks to strong consumer spending, but is widely expected to slow down heading forth due to the post-election measures to curtail spending and control inflation. On a related note, Moody's have revised upwards its YE23 forecast to 4.2% from 2.6%, and expects a 3% growth rate for 2024.
" The CBRT announced that the discount interest rate with up to 3 month maturity will be 25.75%, and 26ç75% per annum for advance transactions.
AGENDA:
" There are no major local macro releases expected, whereas on the international arena, all eyes will be on the US NFP figures and Employment figures, as well as the Eurozone and US PMI figures.
CORPORATE:
" TELECOMMMUNICATIONS: Details of the tax-free cell phone for approximately 7mn university students, according to media reports are gradually surfacing. Most importantly, the tax-free phones will only be applied to locally produced phones.
" ALARK: Disclosed that the purchase of its subsidiary Alarko Tarim was completed for TRY 36.4mn
" ASELS: Disclosed that it has signed two agreements worth TRY 465mn and USD 25mn, respectively.
" BRISA: Disclosed that it will make and additional USD 34mn investment to its 2018 plant to increase total capacity to 4.6mn tires by 2026.
" GUBRF: Disclosed that the IPO of its subsidiary, Tarkim Bitki Koruma has been approved.



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