TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" The BIST closed yesterday 2.12% higher at 7217, and formidable turnover of TRY 178.6bn, thanks to the surge in the energy stocks after the revelation that USD 30bn of the USD 50.7bn agreement with the UAE was earmarked for renewable energy investments, whereas the Banks fell by 0.46%, and the Aviation stocks diverged negatively by 0.53%, and not looking promising today after yesterday's new regulation banning credit card instalments on airline ticket purchases and hospices costs.
" TOASO closed limit-up after it announced that it had bought Stellantis's Turkish distribution network, and was followed by ALARK and EREGL, whereas AKBNK faced profit-takings, and found itself anchoring the blue-chips, together with PGSUS and TCELL.
" Today, amid the new regulations issued by the BRSA, which we will detail below, aimed at curbing discretionary spending, we expect a negative opening, especially among the Airline and Tourism stocks, as well as the Whitegoods and Electronics.
" As of yesterday's session close, the TRY is trading weaker from the session closure at 26.96 against the USD, and 29.66 against the Euro, whereas the DXY has risen to 102, as of print. The 2yr rates fell by 70bps to 15.59%, whereas the 10yr rates rose by 18bps to 18.76%.
" 1H23 Tourism arrival figures rose by 17.48% y/y, whereas revenues rose by 27% in the first 6mths of the year.
AGENDA:
" On the local front, as well as the global, July PMI figures will be released, prev. 51.5, whereas our international audience, besides the PMIs, will be following the Germany Unemployment and US Construction Spending figures.
BRSA Moves:
The BRSA announced additional tightening measures. Accordingly, travel agencies, accommodation, and aviation spendings abroad will not be subject to installments. Additionally, the risk weighting on credit card receivables, overdraft loans and car loans have been increased from 100% to 150%. Banks are likely to pull down credit card limits and tighten their standards on related consumer loans that consume more capital. We are not envisaging any rights issue need from the banks as they are comfortably capitalized. Still, we envisage downbeat reaction to these changes on stocks of directly related sectors such as aviation, automotive, banks as well as an indirect effect on consumer discretionary sectors such as electronics and consumer durables due to likely limitations on credit card receivables.
Banking monthly - Thanks predominantly to trading gains, the Turkish banking sector's net income increased by 31% m-m and 61% y-y resulting in a total of TRY59.8bn in June 2023. Operational performance though, continues to deteriorate. Net interest income worsened by 1% m-m and 50% y-y, respectively on the back of negative TRY core spreads that went further south. Even though there was improvement in FX spreads, core spread worsened to 2.0% from 2.3% a month earlier. However, per CBRT weekly data there is significant improvement in marginal TRY spreads starting from the week of June 30th to present. Therefore, we expect a recovery in the backbook TRY core spread of the sector starting from August onwards.
CORPORATE NEWS:
" AYGAZ - POSITIVE - The Company posted impressive 2Q23 results with EBITDA more than doubling the expectations at TRY326mn vs TRY159mn expectation, while the net profit of TRY724mn is 34% better than consensus. From less than 1% EBITDA margins in the past quarters and as compared to 1.5% expectation for 2Q23, the company recorded a massive 3.4% margin for the quarter.
" ISGYO - NEUTRAL - Is REIT's EBITDA came in 7% below the expectations at TRY108mn due to 3pp lower than anticipated EBITDA margin at 61%, whereas the bottom-line surpassed the expectations by 9% at TRY4.8bn thanks to revaluation gains.
" TUPRS - POSITIVE - Tupras posted a TRY15.1bn EBITDA and TRY7.2bn net profit for 2Q23 that are 17% and 18% better than expectations respectively. The EBITDA margin is a solid 14.5% versus the 11.7% consensus. It is worth highlighting that diesel crack differential of the refinery sector taken from Neste that was US$15/bbl in mid 2Q23 climbed up to US$20/bbl at the end of 2Q23 and further appreciated to US$32/bbl at July-end, warranting another operationally solid quarter for 3Q23.
" TURSG - POSITIVE - Turkiye Insurance posted TRY2.3bn net profit in it 2Q23 results that is 53% better than consensus. Given the loan limitations particularly on autos, climbing interest rates on all consumer loans including mortgages and a likely macro slow down for the second half of the year, we do not think the insurance sector is a good match thematically.
" TSKB - POSITIVE - Net profit for 2Q23 came out at TRY1.76bn. and was 8% higher than expectations. Net income increased 26% and 93% q-q and y-y respectively.
" ANHYT - POSITIVE - Net profit for 2Q23 came out at TRY901mn. and was 25.8% higher than expectations. Net income increased 127% and 313% q-q and y-y respectively.
" PETKM: Naphtha-Ethylene margin is at its all time low levels, the Ethylene Naphtha spread has fallen from USD 616 to USD 291 in the last 4months, thus a negative indicator on the margins.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.