Morning Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler)

MTP HIKES INFLATION FORECAST BUT LOWERS GROWTH RATE
" Despite a positive start to the day, the BIST100 quickly turned red, after the realistic unveiling of the Medium-Term Program, that saw the YE24 Inflation rate increased, but the growth rate reduced, something the market did not react very kindly to.
" Accordingly, the BIST100 closed the session 0.48% at 9936, and with a low turnover of TRY 76.3bn. The BIST managed to pare some of its losses, after dipping at 9897 for the day.
" The Banks fell by 0.94% and the Transportation stocks by 1.31%, while the REITs continued their uptrend.
" HEKTS-GUBRF and FROTO were the most bought blue-chips, whereas YKBNK-PGSUS and KCHOL were the most sold.
" As of print, the TRY is trading weaker against the USD at 33.99, and flat against the Euro at 37.78, while the DXY has dropped to 100.93.
" The 2yr Bond rates fell by 9bps to 40.78% while the 10yr rates fell by 3bps to 28.79%.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trading lower this morning at $72.58, while ounce GOLD is at $2519, rising after the much lower-than expected US ADP figures, thus increasing the concerns over the employment figures, and strengthening the Fed's hand for now aggressively cutting interest rates.
" Members of the OPEC+ oil alliance have delayed plans to hike production by a scheduled 180,000 barrels per day in October, as part of a program to gradually return a broader 2.2 million barrels per day to the market over the following months, thus delaying production increase by 2 months.
" Yesterday, the MTP was unveiled by the Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and Treasury and Finance Minister, Mr. Mehmet Simsek. The 2024 inflation target was revised from 33 percent to 41.5 percent. The 2025 inflation target, previously set at 15.2 percent, was raised to 17.5 percent. For 2026, the target was increased from 8.5 percent to 9.7 percent. However, the growth forecast for 2024 was reduced from 4% to 3.5%, and the 2025 growth rate, which was forecast at 4.5%, was also reduced to 4%, while it was reduced by 0.5% to 4.5% for 2026, and set at 5% for 2027. The updated MTP estimated the average dollar exchange rate at 33.2 liras for 2024, 42 liras for 2025, 44.4 liras for 2026, and 46.9 liras for 2027. In the previous program, the projected rates were higher with 36.78 liras for 2024, 43.93 liras for 2025, and 47.79 liras for 2026.
" Last week, Foreign investors were net SELLERs of $20mn EQUITIES, but net BUYERS of $683mn BONDS.

AGENDA

" On the local front today, the Treasury Cash Budget Balance and Fitch's credit rating decision is expected to be increased to BB-/Positive (currently B+/Positive), while on the international arena, the US NFP figures will be closely watch, as it will be a main determinant if the Fed decides to pull the rate cut trigger in September or not, alongside the Eurozone growth readings.

2Q2024 FINANCIAL RESULTS
" AKSEN: Disclosed a quarterly net income of TRY 721mn vs TRY 1.72bn y/y, thus 1H24 net profits rose to TRY 1.5bn vs TRY 4.86bn y/y.
" GWIND: Disclosed a quarterly net income of TRY 190mn vs. 241mn y/y, thus 1H24 net profits rose to TRY 417mn from TRY 288mn y/y.
" GRSEL: Disclosed a quarterly net income of TRY 256mn vs TRY 243mn y/y, thus 1H24 net profits rose to TRY 723mn from TRY 371mn y/y.
CORPORATE
" ALCTL: Disclosed that it signed a $37.2mn contract with a local client.
" ARCLK: Disclosed that it it has been decided to cease production activities and close the following facilities due to inefficiencies; the Dryer Factory, Cooking Factory, and Plastic Components Plant in Lodz, Poland, as well as the Refrigerator Plant in Wroclaw. Production activities are targeted to end by the first half of 2025. It is planned to reallocate the capacities from these facilities to other operations owned by the company, and these closures are not expected to result in a consolidated revenue loss.


 
 Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  https://www.trive.com.tr/

***
                        Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.