Mornıng Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST pared Thursday’s gains, and closed the week 2.67% lower at 7558, but with a low turnout of TRY 68.3bn, with the brunt of the sell-offs observed in the last 30 minutes of trading.
• On the back of rising fuel prices, coupled with an explosion of a potpourri variety of viruses, the Transportation stocks, more specially, the Aviation stocks, were the most sold, alongside the Mining and the Energy stocks, whereas the Banks were more defensive compared to their peers, falling by less than 1%, hand-in hand with the REITs.
• AKBNK and BIMAS were the only blue-chips that closed positively, while GUBRF was once again limit-down, and at the bottom of the listing, followed by ODAS and KOZAA shares.
• For the week, the BIST100 and BIST30 closed 5.46% and 5.28% lower, respectively, and despite the Banks performing better than their peers, but still losing 2.60% on average, the Energy and the Transportation stocks fell by 8.40% and 7.68%, respectively, due to the soon operation of the nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, and the rise in fuel and cold cases, respectively, followed by the 7.60% drop in the Mining shares.
• The TRY weakened by 0.76% against the USD, and by 2% against the Euro, while on the Bonds’ side, the 2yr rates fell by 0.43%, whereas the 10yr rates rose by 0.27%, respectively.
• On the Commodity front, Brent rose by nearly 2.50% due to the tension and thus risk in oil transportation in the Red Sea, caused by the Yemeni Youthis, and both Ounce and Gram GOLD prices rose by 1.73% and 2.51%, respectively, as traders are betting on rate cuts to commence in 2024 from the Fed and the ECB, despite the officials warning on the contrary.
• As of print, the TRY is trading stronger against both the USD and the Euro at 29.14 and 32.23, respectively, while the DXY is flat at 101.71. The 5yr CDS rates are trading at 284.
• Due to Christmas, the Commodity markets will be closed today, please recall that Brent closed Friday at $78.95, and Ounce and Gram GOLD are at $2053 and TRY 1929, respectively.
• On Friday, the US PCE fell, and important (one of the three) gauges, fell by 0.1% on a monthly, and 3.2%, exc. food/energy on an annual basis, vs 0% and 3.3%, respectively, while real consumer spending was in-line at 0.3%, consistent with a soft landing expectation.
• Goldman Sachs has decided to go the road less travelled, and its analysts expect Turkey’s 250bps rate hike last week to be the last in the current tightening cycle, thus predicting that rates won’t go any higher than the 42.5%, unless there is a significant hike in inflation. Please note that alongside its peers Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, the general consensus is for a final 250bps rate hike in January to 45%.
• Today, we expect a low turnover at the BIST due to Christmas, and wish our readers a Merry Christmas and Holiday season.
• On Tuesday, the Foreign Affairs Committee is set to confirm Sweden’s bid to joining the NATO pact, thus we may see a positive mood in the ASELS shares.
• The 1Q24 Index Changes Have been Disclosed. Accordingly, ALFAS-BRSAN-KLSER and ULKER have been added to the BIST50 listings, whereas AEFES-AKSEN-TSKB and VAKBN have been removed.
AGENDA:
• On the local front this week, the Current Account Deficit, and Real Sector Confidence Levels will kick-off the local agenda on Tuesday, followed by the Economic Confidence Level, Net Change in Non-Resident STOCK/BOND Holdings, and the Trade Balance.
• On the international side, the US and European markets will be closed today, while the European markets will re-open on Wednesday, and the US will be disclosing the Chicago Fed. Nat. Activity Index, Philadelphia Fed. Non-Mfg. Activity, FHFA House Price Index, Richmond Fed Mfg. Index, Wholesale and Retail Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales, while Japan will release its Unemployment and Industrial Production figures.
CORPORATE:
• CLEBI: Hot out-of-the oven: Disclosed that it decided to buy the shares of its two partners to have a complete control of a ground-handling company PTN in Jakarta, Indonesia for €2.06mn
• REITS: Over the weekend, President Erdogan provided details of the Urban Transformation Program, stating that TRY 1.5mn support would be given to new homes, and that 400k new homes would be built in reserve lands. We deem this positive for CEMENT and REIT companies.
• ARCLK: Disclosed that its Dutch subsidiary, Beko B.V. will make a €21.5mn dividend payment.
• KARSN: Disclosed that it obtained a 6yr €35mn loan from the IFC to be used for high value-added products

 
 Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  https://www.trive.com.tr/

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                        Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.