Morning Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

LOWER-THAN EXPECTED LOCAL INUDSTRIAL PRODUCTION FIGURES SPOOK MARKETS OF A STAGLATION
" Despite a positive opening to the day, the selloffs escalated quickly after the release of the July Industrial Production figures showed the economy contracting by 3.9% on an annual basis, despite the 0.4% rise m/m, thus spooking markets of a potential stagflation, especially considering that the OVP last week increased the annual inflation rate but lowered the growth rate, not to mention the recent hike in bankruptcy cases among firms.
" As such, the BIST100 fell by 0.78% to 9624, with a turnover of TRY 77.4bn, led by the 1.73% sales in the Banks, at one time trading over -2%, and the Industrials fell by 1%, while the Mining stocks managed to diverge positively from its peers on a rise of 1.60%.
" BRSAN-BIMAS and TCELL were yesterday's best performing blue-chips, whereas EKGYO pared all of last week's gains yesterday by falling nearly 6%, and followed by the profit-takings in ASTOR and SASA rounded off the bottom 3 dwellers.
" As of print, the TRY is flat against the USD at 34.06, but weaker against the Euro at 37.64 while the DXY has retreated to 101.30.
" The 2yr rates fell by 16bps to 40.61%, while the 10yr rates rose by 10bps to 28.88%.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trading below the $70 ticker for the first time since December 2021, after seeing levels below the 69$ level, is currently higher this morning at $69.43, while ounce GOLD has jumped to $2521, ahead of today's critical US CPI figures, which will help determine if the rate cut is nearer to 25bps or 50bps (less-than expected CPI reading will strengthen the advocates of a 50bps cut).
" Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since December 2021, after OPEC+ revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a monthly report said world oil demand would rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month's forecast for growth of 2.11 million bpd. OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd. Prices slid on the weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply.
" Reuters warned that Turkish companies are facing layoffs-closing and bankruptcy due to inflation and fx-linked drop in export figures, citing that the tight monetary fiscal controls are triggering closures and bankruptcies. Reuters stated that in the 7m2024, the number of company liquidations rose by 28% to around 15k. We can already see the strain experienced by companies in the poor 2Q24 financial results.


AGENDA

" On the local front today, the Retail Trade figures will be released, whereas the US will be releasing its much anticipated CPI figures (+0.2% m/m; +2.5% y/y), and the UK will release its IP figures.

2Q2024 FINANCIAL RESULTS
" ASELS: Released a quarterly net profit of TRY 2.28bn vs. TRY 2.62bn y/y.
" SOKM: Disclosed a quarterly net profit of TRY 175mn vs TRY 472mn y/y.

 
 Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  https://www.trive.com.tr/

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