Market Watch(Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, March 17, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST-100 Index started Thursday on a positive trend, followed a fluctuating intraday course and closed the day at 5,229.58, up 2.11%. The Banking Index closed with a limited negative divergence, up 1.20%, after a brief strong performance. According to Reuters, the current government has mentioned the transition to Orthodox policies in its election manifesto, and that Mehmet Simsek is to join the economy management. This caused strong purchases in the index towards the end of trading on Thursday. In the short term, the Index will likely see buying preserving the short-term uptrend. However, we think that any rises will in turn prompt profit-taking at certain levels. Thus the fluctuating course across a broad band ahead of the elections will continue for some time yet. The major stock markets closed Thursday with a strong reaction after concerns over the banking sector abroad decreased with measures taken. In the short term, high volatility in global markets is expected to continue until the Fed meeting. Although the VIX index has decreased to 23 levels, the Index should fall below 21 to confirm that volatility in the U.S. stock markets is over. Relative to the BIST close the U.S. and German Dax futures were on the rise, varying between 0.9% and 1.7%. There is a positive trend among Asian Stock Markets. Locally, the Benchmark Index is expected to start Friday with an uptrend, and the short-term rise seems set to continue. SUPPORT: 5,180 - 5,130 RESISTANCE: 5,265 - 5,352.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.01% compared to the USD to close to 18.9914. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.44% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 11.29%-11.39%, ending the day at a high of 11.39%, 10 bps above its previous closing.
Sector News:
*** BRSA weekly: USD2bn rise in FC deposits (in $ terms) over the past two weeks. According to BRSA data as of March 10, 2023, FC deposits (in $ terms) rose by USD1.3bn WoW (+0.6%) to USD214.5bn. The cumulative rise has reached USD2bn (+1%) over the past two weeks.
There was a visible 0.9% rise in FC deposits (in $ terms) WoW at private deposit banks. For state and foreign deposit banks FC deposits respectively rose by 0.7% and 0.2% weekly. The share of FC deposits in total deposits fell by 10bps weekly to 42%.
Slight pick up in currency protected deposit growth. Weekly growth slightly accelerated to 1.7% from 1.6% in the prior week. The total balance rose by TRY26bn on a weekly basis. Total volume reached TRY1.6trn (USD84.7bn), corresponding to 39.5% of total FC deposits.
Steep rise in commercial institutions' FC deposits. Individual FC deposits (in $ terms) fell by USD147mn (-0.1%) weekly to USD131.1bn. Commercial institutions' FC deposits (in $ terms) rose sharply by USD1.3bn (+1.7%) WoW to USD78.3bn. Lastly, official and other institutions' FC deposits (in $ terms) rose by USD117mn weekly (+2.4%).
Sharp weekly rise in commercial institutions TRY deposits. On the TRY side, sector deposits rose by TRY85bn weekly (+1.5%). Individual deposits rose by TRY31bn (+1.0%), while those of commercial institutions rose sharply by TRY33bn (+1.8%) weekly. Other institutions' TRY deposits rose by TR20bn (+2.9%) WoW.
Loan growth sustained WoW. The sector's weekly TRY loan growth was flat at 1.5% weekly. The sector's 13-week moving average (FC adj.) lending growth rose to 76.9%, vs. 72.1% in 4Q22. FC loans (in $ terms) fell 0.4% weekly. QtD growth on the TRY side reached 12.0%. (4Q22: 16.7%).
NPL ratio below the 2% level. The sector's NPL ratio eased 2bps weekly to 1.91% (4Q22: 2.09%). Stage 3 coverage was flat weekly at 87.3%.
The sector's FC short position declined by a further 17% WoW to USD971mn. Contrary to the sector trend, state deposit banks' FC net short position rose 7% weekly to USD813mn. For foreign deposit banks, it fell by as much as 94% WoW to USD4mn. Lastly, private deposit banks' short position fell by 52% weekly to USD181mn. The sector's FC net general position/regulatory capital ratio eased to -1.0% from -1.3%. On a segmental basis, this ratio is at -3.0% and 0% for state and foreign deposit banks, and -0.6% for private deposit banks, respectively.
Company News:
Coca-Cola Icecek's (CCOLA.TI; OP) Board has revised its dividend distribution proposal. The Company is proposing to distribute a TRY 750mn gross cash dividend from its 2022 earnings at its Annual General Meeting (AGM). This marks a 16.3% pay-out from earnings, at TRY2.9485 gross per share, and corresponds to a dividend yield of 1.44% according to current prices. The ex-dividend date is 22nd May.
HalkBank (HALKB.TI; MP) has bought back 250K of its own shares (0.01% of its paid-in capital) within a TRY11.27-11.33 share price range as part of its share buyback program of up to TRY250mn nominal shares and TRY2.25bn value. (Total amount bought: 117.9mn shares, which is 2.4% of its paid-in capital (Neutral).
Yapi Kredi Bank's (YKBNK.TI; OP) Board proposal for the distribution of TRY7,911mn gross cash dividends from its 2022 earnings has been approved at its Ordinary General Assembly on March 16. This amounts to a 15.0% pay-out from earnings at a gross TRY0.9365398 and net TRY0.8428858 per share corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.2% (AKBNK: 9.2%, ISCTR: 6.3%) according to current prices. The ex-dividend date is 20th April.


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