Market Watch(Şeker Yatırım)

The BIST-100 Index started Thursday on a positive trend, continued its rise and tested the new historical peak of 4,498 during the day, to close at 4,467.10, up 2.43%. The Banking Index diverged positively, up 3.82%. After the U.S. CPI inflation data printed below expectations, recovery in global risk appetite gained strength with the expectation that the Fed would slow down its rate hikes, and that the worst of inflation was over. After the data emerged, there was a sharp decrease of over 2% in the DXY Dollar Index, and sharp rises ranging between 3-7% at major global stock exchanges. Strong gains were also observed in precious metals, and EM currencies. The short-term uptrend in major global major markets that have broken the short-term down-swing may be expected to continue until the next Fed meeting. The BIST continued its rise with the support of strong balance sheet statements and the firm rise in global stock markets, closing at its new historical peak. The upward revision of share target values after the strong quarterly results supports the Index rise. The Index's uptrend is expected to continue with the support of strengthening global markets in the short term. Yet the risk of profit-taking, albeit limited, remains after the strong short-term rise. Declines, in turn, will present a buying opportunity since the BIST is currently the only alternative among TRY-based assets in the high inflation environment. Add to that stronger global risk appetite plus the fundamental upward potential of the Index. While the average market forecast for September's current account data, to be announced domestically, is USD2.85 billion, as Seker Invest, our forecast is at USD3.0 billion. The annual average expectation for industrial production in September, also to be announced today, is 3.3%. The Seker Invest forecast is for an increase of 2.9%. The fact that industrial production data is far below expectations may trigger profit sales at the BIST, led by Industrial index shares. The VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session up 0.73%. Relative to the BIST close, the U.S. and German DAX futures were up by 1.20-1.90%. Asian Stock Markets were dominated by a strong buyers' trend in parallel with the major stock markets. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start with a rise. And any subsequent profit sales should be considered as a buying opportunity, thereby continuing the rise. SUPPORT: 4,425 - 4,364 RESISTANCE: 4,498 - 4,549.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.53% compared to the USD to close to 18.4917. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.23% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 12.42%-12.53%, ending at the 12.42%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** On the macroeconomic data agenda, the Balance of Payments and Industrial Production statistics for September will be announced today. The market expectation is that there will be a USD2.85 billion Current Account Deficit and an annual 3.3% increase in Industrial Production in September. As Seker Invest, we expect USD3 billion current account deficit and 2.9% rise in industrial production in September. After the data is announced, our detailed analysis will be published within the day.
 
*** Unemployment rate rises 0.3 points to 10.1% in September, and the slowdown in economic activity will gradually continue to reflect on the labor market: The number of unemployed persons aged 15 and above increased by 120 thousand in September compared to the previous month to 3 million 482 thousand. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, increased by 0.3 points to 10.1%. While the unemployment rate was 8.8% for men, it was estimated to be 12.8% for women. In the same period, the number of people employed decreased by 54 thousand in September 2022 compared to the previous month to 30 million 867 thousand people, while the employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.6%. While this rate was 65.0% for men, it was 30.6% for women. The labor force participation rate, on the other hand, rose by 67 thousand people compared to the previous month to 34 million 349 thousand people, while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 52.9%. The labor force participation rate was 71.3% for men and 35.0% for women. The unemployment rate among the young population increased by 1.2 points compared to the previous month to 19.6%. The unemployment rate in this age group was estimated at 16.5% for men and 25.4% for women. The slowdown in economic activity will gradually reflect on the outlook in the labor market, albeit belatedly, and will push the unemployment rate up somewhat.
The increase in production costs due to inflationary pressures and the decrease in new orders have decreased unit labor productivity relatively. In addition, the upward movement in energy prices brings with it some undesirable consequences, such as interruption of production in energy-intensive sectors, or downsizing. Both the slowdown in economic activity and the rising costs pose an obstacle to new purchases in the labor market. Geopolitical risk and concerns over global monetary policy bring delays to investment/employment decisions. The improvement in the labor market trend, has provided the necessary condition for tightening steps, especially among global central banks. We expect these levels (9.5-10%) to be the lowest for the unemployment rate and that upward momentum will accelerate unemployment rate in case of any monetary tightening policy or recession. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Sector News:
FC deposits (in $ terms) fell by USD327mn WoW (-0.1%) to USD237.7bn, triggered by individuals. According to BRSA data as of November 4, 2022, FC deposits (in $ terms) fell USD327mn WoW to USD237.7bn. This brings the cumulative decline to USD1bn WoW (-0.4%) over the past two weeks.
The YtD decline has reached USD21.7bn (-8.4%). The share of FC deposits in total deposits fell 10bps to 52.3%.
FC deposits (in $ terms) rose by as much as USD5.9bn QtD (+7.0%) at state deposit banks. There was a visible 1.9% rise in FC deposits (in $ terms) on a weekly basis at state deposit banks. This brings the total increase to as much as USD5.9bn (+7.0%) compared to 3Q22. On the other hand, for foreign and private deposit banks, FC deposits fell by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively, WoW. The QtD decline reached USD1.8bn (-3.4%) and USD1.3bn (-1.8%), respectively.
Currency-protected TRY deposit growth slightly accelerated weekly to 0.7% from 0.6%. The total volume has reached TRY1,473bn (USD79.4bn), corresponding to 33.4% of the total FC deposit base.
Commercial institutions' FC deposits rose USD711bn (+0.8%) (in $ terms) WoW. Individual FC deposits (in $ terms) fell USD1.2bn (-0.8%) weekly to USD143.6bn. Commercial institutions' FC deposits (in $ terms) rose by USD711mn weekly (+0.8%) to USD88.7bn. Lastly, official and other institutions' FC deposits (in $ terms) rose by USD137mn weekly (+2.6%).
Steep 5.9% decline in other institutions' TRY deposits. On the TRY side, sector deposits rose just TRY566mn weekly. Individual deposits hiked by TRY52bn (+2.5%), while those of commercial institutions fell by TRY19bn (-1.4%) weekly. Other institutions' TRY deposits declined sharply by TRY32bn (-5.9%) WoW.
TRY loan growth lost pace WoW. The sector's weekly TRY loan growth decelerated to 0.9% from 1.8%. This brings YtD growth to 61.9%. FC loans (in $ terms) fell 0.8% weekly. The sector's 13-week moving average (FC adj.) lending growth accelerated to 63.8%, vs. 55.9% in 3Q22.
Slowdown in consumer loan growth. Total consumer loan growth lost pace to 0.6%, vs. 1.0% growth in the previous week. Mortgage loans were up 0.1%, while auto and GPLs respectively rose by 3.2% and 0.8% weekly. This brings YtD growth to 28%.
Credit cards are the fastest growing loans segments YtD. Consumer and commercial credit cards rose 0.8% and 1.2% WoW. This brings YtD growth to an eye-catching 74.7% and 89.7%, respectively, the highest expansion among the loan segments.
Ongoing growth in commercial installment loans. Commercial installment loans rose 0.5%, vs. 0.8% in the previous week. YtD growth is 28.4%.
Asset quality slightly improved WoW. The sector's NPL ratio improved 2bps weekly to 2.22% (3Q22: 2.29%). Stage 3 coverage rose 32bps weekly to 84.1%.
The TRY commercial loans lending rate declined to 16.16%, the lowest level of the past two years. On the funding side, TRY deposit rates with up to 3M maturity rose by 107bps weekly to 20.88%. TRY commercial lending rates (excl. comm. credit cards and GPLs) eased by a further 180bps weekly to 16.16%. This is the lowest level since the week of 13 November 2020’s 16.78%. This brings the total decline to 323bps since end-September.
Mortgage rates, on the other hand, rose by 16 bps on a weekly basis to 21.56%, and the only weekly rise among TRY loan rates was realized in this segment.
Slight increase in state deposit banks' FC short net general position. State deposit banks delivered a USD98mn FC net short position, vs. USD75mn in the prior week. As of end-2Q22, the FC short general position of state deposit banks was just USD4mn. FC long positions at foreign and private deposit banks rose 1% and 2% to USD2,632mn and USD2,319mn weekly, respectively.
Company News:
HalkBank (HALKB.TI; MP) is expected to announce its 3Q22 earnings results today after the market close. We foresee the biggest jump in earnings for HalkBank among coverage banks. Our net income estimate is TRY4,032mn (+57% QoQ, 4,274% YoY) while the Research Turkey market consensus is TRY4,064mn (Positive).
Turk Telekom (TTKOM.TI; OP) has announced that Fitch Ratings concluded its annual review and affirmed its long-term foreign and local currency ratings at 'B' with a 'negative' outlook. (Turk Telekom's rating is limited to Turkey's B/negative foreign and local currency rate). Fitch also maintained TTKOM's National Long-Term Rating of "AAA (tur)" with a 'stable' outlook. The long-term senior unsecured rating is affirmed as “B”.
October 2022 Foreign activity at Borsa Istanbul: In October 2022 foreign investors were net sellers of Turkish equities at Borsa Istanbul to the tune of USD 653.0mn. Among the top-five most sold stocks: Tupras (TUPRS.TI; OP) on USD 211.9mn, was followed by Akbank (AKBNK.TI; OP), Ford Otosan (FROTO.TI; OP), Koc Holding (KCHOL.TI; OP) and Enerjisa (ENJSA.TI; N/C). Meanwhile, the top-five most bought stocks were: Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; OP) on USD 51.8mn, being the most active, followed by Sisecam (SISE.TI; OP), Hektas (HEKTS.TI; N/C), Sasa Polyester (SASA.TI; N/C) and Gubre Fabrikalari (GUBRF.TI; N/C).

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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.