Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Tuesday on a negative trend, going on to close the day at 11,089.53, down 0.74%. The Industrial Index decreased by 0.14% and the Banking Index lost 1.92%. While the short-term rising trend of the BIST100 is maintained, a loss of momentum is observed due to the lack of short-term expectations. Therefore, profit sales may continue in the short term. However, we continue to expect the medium-term trend to be maintained by sales presenting buying opportunities. On the global front, with the U.S. election agenda in focus, stock markets in the U.S. and Europe were on a downtrend yesterday. This morning, the U.S. futures, German DAX futures and Asian stock markets are on the decline. Global PMI data will be followed today. We expect the data to impact risk appetite. Domestically, the VIOP30 Index completed the evening session down 0.02%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start the day flat and follow a fluctuating intraday course. SUPPORT: 11,000 - 10,800 RESISTANCE: 11,250 - 11,500.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.25% against the USD to close at 32.8214. The currency also appreciated by 1.24% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a range of 27.69%-28.11%, closing the day at 27.84%, down 21 bps from the previous close.
Headlines:
*** According to Bloomberg, the CBRT has stated in a letter sent to banks that it may start auctions of gold and foreign currency against TL. Previously, gold and foreign exchange auctions were held to balance liquidity conditions in the market. In the current situation, both the flexibility provided by the recovery in reserves and the excess liquidity in the market have made this move necessary. We see this as a step that will increase the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism and support tight monetary policy.
*** CBRT keeps policy rate unchanged at 50% in line with expectations. Emphasis is placed on administered prices, tax adjustments and unprocessed food prices, and it is underlined that additional tightening in monetary policy would be implemented if necessary… The CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate unchanged at 50% at this month's meeting in line with expectations. The MPC's decision, which was in line with the previous decision text, was subject to some changes. The main ones were the administered price and tax adjustments and the developments in unprocessed food prices. It was stated that inflation would register a temporary increase in July due to supply-side developments beyond the control of monetary policy. However, the rise in the underlying trend of inflation is expected to remain limited. In order to prevent additional pressure on price stability from developments in credit growth, additional measures were taken for foreign currency loans. The CBRT also stated that it would support monetary transmission through additional prudential measures in case of unexpected developments in credit and deposit markets. As emphasized in previous decisions, the CBRT stated that the tight stance will be maintained until monthly inflation falls significantly and permanently and inflation expectations are in line with CBRT forecasts. In case of a significant and permanent deterioration in inflation, the monetary policy stance will be tightened.
In the details of the decision text, the rationale for the tight stance is given. Accordingly, "The underlying trend of monthly inflation posted a notable weakening in June. Leading indicators suggest that monthly inflation will rise temporarily in July due to administered price and tax adjustments, which are relatively outside the monetary policy's sphere of influence, and supply-side developments in unprocessed food prices. Nevertheless, the rise in the underlying trend is expected to remain relatively limited. Recent indicators confirm that domestic demand continues to slow down, albeit still at an inflationary level. The high course and rigidity in services inflation, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks and food prices keep inflationary pressures alive. The Committee closely monitors the alignment of inflation expectations and pricing behavior with projections." Electricity prices and other tax adjustments will cause a temporary deviation in July inflation from the levels envisaged in the forecast path. However, this effect is expected to have a limited impact on the underlying trend of inflation. Although these developments, which are beyond the control of the monetary policy, complicate the CBRT's inflation targets, it was emphasized that additional measures would be taken as necessary.
The section on the rationale for the interest rate decision is summarized as follows. "The effects of monetary tightening on credit and domestic demand are closely monitored. Considering the lagged effects of the monetary tightening, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, yet reiterated its cautious stance against upside risks to inflation. The tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until the underlying trend of monthly inflation displays a significant and lasting decline and inflation expectations converge to the projected forecast range. In case of a significant and permanent deterioration in inflation, the monetary policy stance will be tightened. The decisive monetary policy stance will bring down the underlying trend of monthly inflation and strengthen the disinflation process through the rebalancing in domestic demand, the real appreciation of the Turkish lira and the improvement in inflation expectations." It was re-emphasized that the tight stance will continue until the underlying trend of inflation declines on a monthly basis. In this context, the main indicator of the maturity of the tight stance will be the monthly inflation developments. In addition, the door was left open for additional tightening in monetary policy in case of a significant deterioration in inflation.
Sector News:
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the local and foreign-currency long-term deposit, issuer and senior unsecured ratings - where applicable - and Baseline Credit Assessments (BCAs) of 17 Turkish banks. The outlooks remain positive.
The affected banks are Akbank, Ziraat Bank, Vakifbank, Halkbank, Is Bank, TSKB, Yapi Kredi Bank, Garanti BBVA, Odea Bank, Alternatifbank, Eximbank, Nurol Investment Bank, TEB, Sekerbank, QNB Finansbank, Denizbank and HSBC Bank.
Company News:
Yapi Kredi Bank (YKBNK.TI; OP) has announced that necessary legal permissions were obtained from domestic and foreign regulatory authorities for the acquisition and share transfer of all shares of Bankhaus J. Faisst OHG to Yapi Kredi Bank to engage in banking activities in Germany. The share transfer to Yapı Kredi Bank was completed on 23.07.2024. The capital of Bankhaus J. Faisst OHG will be increased by 60 million Euros to 65.5 million Euros on July 24, 2024, all of which will be covered in cash by Yapi Kredi Bank.
Migros (MGROS.TI; OP) has announced to sign agreements to sell 100% shares as well as liabilities of its subsidiary Ramstore Kazakhstan LLC ("Ramstore Kazakhstan"), which previously divested food retail operations in Kazakhstan and continues its operations solely with the management of a shopping mall in Almaty, for approximately USD 34.5 million at current exchange rate (USD 21,578,200 and EUR 11,800,000) to TOO Evrazia Almaty. Within the scope of the agreements coming into force, the collection of the said amounts has been completed on July 23, 2024. This decision, which has been taken in line with Migros' long-term strategies, will contribute to the Company's profitable and sustainable growth targets in its domestic operations. In addition; sales profit will be used for strengthening the balance sheet and working capital requirements (Positive).



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.