Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Outlook:

The BIST100 Index started Tuesday on a positive trend, peaked at a record 11,188 with a positive trend throughout the day, and closed at 11,139.34, up 0.67%. While the Industrial Index rose by 0.60% the Banking Index diverged positively, up 2.09%. Expectations of increased foreign investor inflow in the mid to long term continue to support the BIST, led by banks. Moody's Turkey assessment, expected on Friday, also supports foreign investor expectations that the BIST has been pricing in for a while. We expect the Benchmark BIST100, which has broken TRY-based records over the past three trading days, to continue its rise on this momentum. We also maintain our view that periodic profit sales will be considered as buying opportunities. On the global front, markets continue to price the possibility of the Fed starting to reduce interest rates in September, and of Trump winning the upcoming elections. While the U.S. stock markets continue their rise, Asian stock markets are negatively affected. This morning, U.S. futures, Asian stock markets and German DAX futures are on the decline. We observe fluctuations in global risk appetite yet foresee it remaining strong as data supports interest rate cut expectations. Euro Zone CPI data will be followed today. The VIOP30 Index ended the evening session up 0.09%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Wednesday with a limited rise, and then seek to continue it if intraday profit-taking occurs. SUPPORT: 11,000 - 10,800 RESISTANCE: 11,250 - 11,500.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.08% against the USD to close at 33.0709. The currency also depreciated by 0.01% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a range of 27.80%-27.95%, closing the day at 27.85%, up 15 bps from the previous close.
Headlines:
*** In June, the budget and primary balance posts a deficit of TRY 275.3 billion and TRY 176 billion, respectively. Despite austerity measures, structural deterioration in the budget continues… According to the June central government budget data released by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, budget revenues and budget expenditures were realized as TRY 591.2 billion and TRY 866.5 billion, respectively. In the same period, non-interest budget expenditures were realized as TRY 767.2 billion. Accordingly, the budget deficit was realized at TRY 275.3 billion while the primary balance posted a deficit of TRY 176 billion. Although some changes were observed in the current transfers account, which has long been pressuring the budget, it is still far from the desired level. Current transfers to state enterprises were completely cut in June. Transfers to non-profit organizations or treasury aid has declined significantly. Hence, we conclude that the impact of public sector austerity measures has started to be felt. On the other hand, holiday bonuses, which have a periodic impact on the budget, created additional pressure of around TRY 42 billion in June. While these effects were experienced on the expenditure side, weak tax collection and the disappearance of the seasonal effect of corporate tax collection triggered the budget deficit. Especially in the second half of the year, pressure on the budget will increase in the second half of the year, led by personnel expenditures due to inflation. As the decline in the inflation trend will also affect budget expenditures, price stability will contribute to fiscal discipline. And while tight monetary policy continues, the contribution to price stability through tight fiscal policy has become more important.
Budget expenditures increased by 77% compared to the same period of last year. The highest proportional increases were in lending (274%) and capital expenditures (184%), while the highest items were current transfers (TRY 370 billion) and personnel expenditures (TRY 207.7 billion). The average annual increase in budget revenues was 120.4%. The highest increases were in domestic VAT (3,028%) and banking and insurance transactions tax (205%). The sub-items that contributed the most to budget revenues were SCT and income tax (TRY 111.6 billion and TRY 106.2 billion, respectively). A comparison of the revenue-expenditure balance reveals that tax revenues are far from covering expenditures without a structural improvement.




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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.