Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, February 17, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST-100 Index started Thursday on a strong rise, after the sharp climb close to the ceiling of the previous day, testing the intraday level of 5,320. However, the Index, which returned most of its gains during the day, ultimately closed at 5,008.58, up 1.17%. After the measures and decisions taken at the BIST by the regulatory institutions in the wake of the earthquake disaster reactionary purchases continued strongly at the opening, although profit sales were experienced in the Index following the steep rise. The main factor in the strong reaction was the increased share of the state contribution to PPS funds from 10% to 30% and the 10-day period for this change. Since the change is expected to result in a purchase-side money inflow of approximately TRY 10 billion to the BIST in the short term, despite pullbacks, the Index uptrend is expected to be maintained for now. However, it should be noted that giving PPS funds additional time to make this change may trigger resales. While high volatility at the BIST, which is fluctuating in the short term, is expected to continue for a while, we may expect stock-based divergences in the Index to come to the fore during the results season. On the global side, hawkish statements from Fed members continue to emerge. After the latest U.S. inflation data, the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates higher than expected has strengthened, while global risk appetite has weakened. The U.S. stock markets closed the day with a decrease of over 1%. Profit sales are expected to continue in global stock markets and risky assets in the short term. According to the BIST close, U.S. futures were down 0.5-1.1%, while German futures were somewhat negative. In Asian Stock Markets a general selling trend is dominant. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Friday negatively with a fluctuating course to follow throughout the day. While waiting for intraday profit sales, pullbacks in the Index can be used as buying opportunities. SUPPORT: 4,920 - 4,750 RESISTANCE: 5,130 - 5,320.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.05% compared to the USD to close at the day at a low of 18.8411. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.07% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 10.95%-11.20%, ending the day at a low of 10.95%, 38 bps below its previous closing.
Sector News:
*** According to Bloomberg, the CBRT has requested the banks to increase costs in sales of foreign exchange forward contracts and raise the interest rates from 30% to 40% in dollar forward contracts in order to reduce the demand for foreign currency. The CBRT has also requested banks not to sell dollars below the 19.05 level to individual clients.
*** Total $4.9bn decline in FC deposits (in $ terms) over the past four weeks. According to BRSA data as of February 10, 2023, FC deposits (in $ terms) fell by USD2.2bn WoW (-1.0%) to USD220.6bn. This brings the cumulative decline to USD4.9bn (-2.2%) over the past four weeks.
There was a visible 1.9% decline in FC deposits (in $ terms) WoW at foreign deposit banks. For state and private deposit banks FC deposits fell by 1.1% and 0.6% weekly. The share of FC deposits in total deposits fell by 100bps weekly to 44.5%.
Currency-protected TRY deposit growth decelerated. Weekly growth eased to 1.9% from 3.5% in the prior week. Total volume reached TRY1,48bn (USD78.9bn), corresponding to 35.8% of the total FC deposit base.
USD156mn (+3.2%) weekly rise in official FC deposits. Individual FC deposits (in $ terms) fell USD1.8bn (-1.3%) weekly to USD134.5bn. Commercial institutions' FC deposits (in $ terms) declined by USD543mn (-0.7%) WoW to USD81.1bn. Lastly, official and other institutions' FC deposits (in $ terms) rose by USD156mn weekly (+3.2%).
Steep 13.7% weekly rise in other institutions' TRY deposits. On the TRY side, sector deposits rose by TRY156bn weekly (+3.1%). Individual deposits rose by TRY43bn (+1.6%), while those of commercial institutions rose by TRY32bn (+1.5%) weekly. Other institutions' TRY deposits rose sharply by TR81bn (+13.7%) WoW.
Steep rise in Private deposit banks' FC net short position. State deposit banks' FC net short position rose 28% weekly to USD805mn. For foreign deposit banks, it declined by 58% WoW to USD124mn. Lastly, private deposit banks' short position rose sharply by 122% weekly to USD252mn.
Sector's net short position rose sharply by 24% WoW to -USD1.2bn. The sector's FC net general position/regulatory capital ratio rose to -1.3% from -1.0%. On a segmental basis, this ratio respectively stands at -3.0% and -0.6% for state and foreign deposit banks, and -0.8% for private deposit banks.
*** The Presidential Decree on exemption from the limitations on donations and aid to be made by banks and institutions subject to consolidated supervision within the scope of the Banking Law was published in the Official Gazette today within the scope of the state of emergency declared on February 8, 2023. Accordingly, donations and aid to be made to the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency by banks and organizations to eliminate the conditions that adversely affect general life after the earthquakes will not be included within the scope of the restrictions.
Company News:
Akbank (AKBNK.TI; OP) has authorized its management to implement a share buyback program for TRY52mn of its own nominal shares and up to TRY1bn nominal value until December, 31, 2023, in order to support healthy price formation and protect the interests of investors.
Is Bank (ISCTR.TI; OP) has purchased 100K Anadolu Sigorta (ANSGR.TI; N/C) shares in a TRY15.90-16.43/share price range and increased its stake to 0.02% (Neutral).
Is Bank (ISCTR.TI; OP) has purchased 100K Anadolu Hayat (ANHYT.TI; N/C) shares in a TRY16.60-17.87/share price range and increased its stake to 63.92% (Neutral).
Pegasus (PGSUS.TI; OP) has released its monthly traffic figures for January 2023. The carrier's total PAX rose by 25% YoY over a relatively weaker base in January 2022, and the load factor improved by 10.1 pp YoY to 84.5% in January 2023. While the results indicate continuing recovery in the international load factor, traffic development in January 2023 largely met expectations. Hence, we expect the data announcement to have a slightly positive impact on the near-term share performance.
· Total PAX rises 25% YoY over a weak base - Pegasus' domestic PAX rose by 25% YoY to 0.89mn in January 2023. The carrier's international PAX improved notably by 50% YoY to 1.25mn in January 2023.
· Load factor rises 10.1 pp YoY to 84.5% in January 2023 - The carrier's domestic load factor has improved by 5.7 pp YoY to 86.5% in January 2023, while Its international load factor improved more notably by 13.5 pp YoY to 83.1% in January 2023.
VakifBank (VAKBN.TI; MP) has bought back 250K of its own shares within a TRY9.28-9.42 share price range as part of its share buyback program of up to TRY150mn nominal shares and TRY1bn value. (Total amount bought: 40.2mn shares, which is 0.56% of its paid-in capital (Neutral).

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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.