Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Monday flat, then followed an intraday selling trend to close at 7,728.44, down 2.34%. Non-bank stocks of high index weight such as THYAO, TUPRS, and BIMAS made the strongest negative contribution to the Index in point terms. The Industrial Index and Banking Index lost 2.81% & 0.97%, respectively. As we approach the end of the year, inflation accounting, rising interest rates, the greater appeal of alternative income instruments, and higher stock loan interest rates are suppressing the BIST. Global markets started the new week with a positive trend. This morning, German DAX futures and Asian indices are positive, while the U.S. futures have traded with sellers ahead of inflation data. Today, global markets focus on CPI data in the USA. The data, which revealed a 3.2% annual rise in October, is expected to see a fall to 3.1% in November. Data above expectations may suppress risk appetite through expectations of the Fed raising interest rates. Inversely, data below expectations may support risk appetite. Domestically, The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session up 0.16%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Tuesday positively, with the uptrend maintained amid a fluctuating course where rises invite profit-taking. SUPPORT: 7,634 - 7,520 RESISTANCE: 7,855 - 7,920.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.04% compared to the USD to close to 28.9838. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.04% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 26.91%-27.32%, ending at the 26.95%, 21 bps below its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** Industrial Production contracts by 0.4% mom in October while annual production growth declines to 1.1%. Leading indicators for the last quarter of the year indicate that the tightening steps are reflected in real economic indicators: According to the Industrial Production Index, seasonally and calendar adjusted production contracted by 0.4% mom and increased by 1.1% yoy in October. The market expectation was that annual production would increase by 2% (Seker Investment expectation was 2.4%). The increase, which was below market and our expectations, shows the extent of the slowdown in economic activity. The monthly contraction in the production series that started in July continues. Decisive tightening steps taken by the economic administration continue to be reflected in real economic indicators. Monetary policy implementations that curtail domestic demand are in line with both the soft landing and rebalancing in the economy and the continuity in economic activity. Slowing economic activity in global economies and especially in Europe, our main trade market, is dampening foreign demand and industrial production. The rising financing costs of real sector companies outside the financial sector, which contribute to industrial production, continue to affect production and investment decisions. Throughout 2024, we anticipate that firms with high exports and low financing costs will be positively differentiated.
Analyzing the sub-sectors; in October, the mining and quarrying sector index increased by 3.7%, the manufacturing industry sector index increased by 1.3% and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector index increased by 3.5% compared to the same month of the previous year. At monthly change levels, the index for the mining and quarrying sector increased by 3.2% compared to the previous month, while the index for the manufacturing industry sector decreased by 0.3% and the index for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector decreased by 2.3%. The course in the manufacturing industry is almost flat, but the monthly contraction in energy and derivatives is quite high. Despite low oil prices, the decline in energy production is an indicator of tightening steps and falling demand. We expect the rebalancing in economic activity to continue through 2024 and domestic demand to regain momentum starting from 2025. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
*** Current Account Balance posts a surplus of 186 million USD in October, while the 12-month current account deficit is realized at 50.7 billion USD. While the current account surplus remains below expectations, the positive momentum in the services balance remains strong despite the summer season: According to the balance of payments statistics, the current account balance posted a surplus of 186 million USD in October. As a result, the twelve-month current account deficit was realized at 50,743 million USD. As Seker Invest, we had expected a current account surplus of 750 million USD, below the average market expectation (800 million USD surplus). The current account surplus was realized at around USD 500 million below both our and the market's expectations. This was mainly driven by the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit of 4,866 million USD and services inflows of 6,035 million USD. The 12-month cumulative foreign trade deficit declined to 112.4 billion USD (May peak was 122 billion USD) thanks to the tightening steps that started after June. Although the increase in energy imports will gain momentum with the winter season, we expect the recovery in the core current account balance indicators to continue. In particular, we continue to expect the positive contribution of the decline in credit growth rates to both price stability and the balance of payments to be reflected gradually. The flat, but upward movements in the Turkish Lira, supported by liquidity tightening, will continue to support the current account balance throughout 2024.
The current account excluding gold and energy posted a surplus of 5,067 million USD this month. The positive trend in indicators that we can characterize as the core current account balance continues. Although the rise in energy imports in the last quarter of the year will widen the gap between the total current account balance and the core current account balance, this effect will weaken as of April. The tight economic stance and liquidity management's support for sectors that contribute positively to the current account balance will alleviate the negative pressures on the balance of payments.
Analyzing the developments in the financial account, net inflows in direct investments were realized as 638 million USD. Portfolio investments recorded net outflows of 689 million USD. Non-residents made net sales of 423 million USD in the equity market and 16 million USD in the government domestic debt securities market. Regarding loans obtained from abroad, banks and the General Government realized net utilization of 509 million USD and 50 million USD, respectively, while others realized net repayment of 301 million USD. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Company News:
Sisecam (SISE.TI; OP) has announced that a total of 625,572 nominal shares (total amount of TRY 29,414,395) were repurchased within a price range of TRY 46.68 - TRY 47.20 per share (average price TRY 47.02) at the BIST on December 11, 2023. Total repurchased shares to date correspond to 1.621% of the company's capital (including the disposal of a portion of the repurchased shares).
November 2023 Foreign activity at Borsa Istanbul: In November 2023 foreign investors were net buyers of Turkish equities at Borsa Istanbul to the tune of USD 725.8mn. Among the top-five most bought stocks: Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; OP) on USD 272.1mn, was followed by Tupras (TUPRS.TI; OP), Yapi Kredi (YKBNK.TI; OP), Akbank (AKBNK.TI; OP) and Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP). Meanwhile, the top-five most sold stocks were: Turkcell (TCELL.TI; OP) on USD 50.8mn, being the most active, followed by Turk Traktor (TTRAK.TI; N/C), Enerjisa (ENJSA.TI; N/C), Arcelik (ARCLK.TI; OP) and Migros (MGROS.TI; OP).

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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.