Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, October 11, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Tuesday on a positive trend and closed at 8,442.79, up 3.04%. The Industrial Index rose by 3.10% and the Banking Index by 3.26%. Both global and domestic risk appetite recovered yesterday with the expectation that conflict in Israel would remain local. However, we think that rising geopolitical risk will continue to impact the markets in the short term. And while such developments remain closely monitored, the BIST is also approaching the results season, whereby stock/sector-based divergences will become evident. On the global front, as risk appetite recovered, the U.S., European and Asian Stock Markets ended Tuesday with increases. This morning, the U.S. futures, German DAX futures, and Asian Stock Markets in general remain bullish. The VIX has declined close to 17, indicating that selling pressure in the U.S. Stock Markets has decreased. The VIOP-30 Index completed the evening session down 0.59%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Wednesday with a negative trend, and any intraday reactionary purchases would present a profit-taking opportunity, thus perpetuating the fluctuating and weak course at the BIST. SUPPORT: 8,384 - 8,304 RESISTANCE: 8,484 - 8,562.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.07% compared to the USD to close to 27.7264. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.45% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of 27.00%-27.05%, ending at the 27.00%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** Balance of payments statistics for August will be released today. Market expectations are for a current account deficit of USD 650 million in August. In light of the leading trade and services balance indicators, Seker Invest expects a current account deficit of USD 800 million for the month. Our detailed analysis after the data emerges will be published during the day.
*** Industrial Production contracts slightly by 0.8% mom in August despite growth expectations, while annual production growth slows to 3.1%. Tight monetary policy at home and recession concerns in the global markets are having an impact: According to the Industrial Production Index, seasonally- and calendar-adjusted production contracted by 0.8% mom and increased by 3.1% yoy in July. Despite the limited growth expectations in the market, the contraction seems to be a reflection of local and global economic developments on production. It was expected that the tight monetary stance in Turkey would slow down the vitality in economic activity. Adding the effects of the slowdown in global demand to this, production activity is losing momentum faster than expected. We had anticipated that the sharp tightening in both monetary and fiscal policies starting from the second half of the year would have gradual effects on access to liquidity, production and investment. We expect this effect to be felt more clearly in the last quarter of the year. In particular, slowing down economic activity through demand and cooling the warming economy will gradually affect production and supply conditions. The companies that stand out in the last quarter of the year will be those with low financial leverage and strong equity capital. The high cost of financing in the short and medium term will continue to affect production momentum by affecting both new investment decisions and cash flow.
Analyzing the sub-sectors; in August, mining and quarrying index increased by 5.1%, the manufacturing industry index increased by 1.8%, and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution index increased by 4.9% compared to the same month of the previous year. At monthly change levels, the mining and quarrying index increased by 0.2%, manufacturing industry index decreased by 1.3% and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution index increased by 2.4% compared to the previous month. The monthly contraction in the manufacturing industry continues. On the other hand, the recovery in energy prices started to support production momentum. While the monetary policy stance sets supporting production as one of its intermediate targets, it also tries to prevent overheating. As the momentum in economic activity decelerates, the risk of sudden stops is prevented by the supportive monetary policy tools. The economy, which has been overheating by entering a downward trend in growth and production momentum, will stabilize in around 2023. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Company News:
Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; OP) has released its traffic figures for September 2023 with PAX growth of 9.2% YoY thanks to the support of increased domestic passengers compared to September 2022. THY's total PAX in September 2023 was at 7.94mn. Meanwhile, the share of international PAX in total PAX was 63.4% in September 2023. Prepared to benefit from the potential further recovery of passenger traffic, the total load factor was 0.4 pp lower YoY at 84.9% in September 2023. The carrier's international PAX rose by 2.9% YoY to 5.03mn in September 2023; domestic PAX also increased, up by 22.1% YoY to 2.91mn in September 2023. Also, THY's cargo operations volume were positive, up by 3.4% YoY in September 2023. The Company's announced September 2023 traffic data indicates that the share of international passengers in the total passenger number has maintained its strong share, and that the sustained higher travel demand effect supports approximating the figures of 2019. Meanwhile, the significant improvement in domestic PAX number continues to support the Company's operations.



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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.