Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, November 8, 2024

Outlook:
 
The BIST moved in parallel with global markets to experience purchases yesterday. The BIST100 Index started Thursday positively but weakened during the day to close at 8,946.13, up 0.95%. The Industrial Index rose by 0.75% and the Banking Index gained 1.89%. The enthusiasm in global markets as US election uncertainty ended with Trump's victory continues. The CBRT will publish its latest inflation report of the year today. We think that the 2024-2025 inflation forecast path and messages to be given regarding the monetary stance may impact local risk appetite. On the global side, markets yesterday followed the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England. Both institutions cut interest rates by 25 bps each. Speaking after the Fed meeting, President Powell pointed out that the employment market has weakened and that inflation is approaching the 2% target. Yesterday, the U.S. Stock Markets rose, led by technology stocks. This morning, the U.S. futures are positive while most Asian stock markets and German DAX futures are on the decline. The VIOP30 Index lost 0.25% in value in the evening session. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Friday somewhat positively, and continue to trend upwards thereafter if any intraday profit sales are met with purchases. SUPPORT: 8,500 - 8,750 RESISTANCE: 9,100 - 9,200.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.01% against the USD to close at 34.2252. The currency also depreciated by 0.52% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a range of 30.58%-30.91%, closing the day at 30.63%, down 39 bps from the previous close.
Headlines:
The CBRT will publish the last inflation report of the year today. The main headlines to be closely monitored by the market will be the 2024-2025 inflation forecast path and the messages regarding the monetary stance. We would like to point out that market expectations may change according to the updates in the forecasts to be made by the CBRT, and that short-term intraday volatility may be experienced due to macro indicators.
Sector News:
BRSA Weekly: KKM fell below USD40bn. According to the weekly BRSA data of November 1, 2024, the sector's FX deposits (in $ terms) fell by a limited USD230mn and 0.1% on a weekly basis to USD193.9bn. KKM decreased by 2.8% weekly to $39.3 billion.
State deposit banks' FX deposits fell 1.2% weekly. There was a 0.7% and 0.2% rise in foreign and private deposit banks. FX deposits are stable at 36.6% of total deposits.
Individuals' FX deposits (in $ terms) rose by 0.2% on a weekly basis. There were 0.5% and 3.5% declines in commercial institutions and official institutions.
KKM fell below the USD40bn level. The weekly outflow rate in KKM is 2.6% and stable. The total amount fell by 36.4 billion TL to 1.34 trillion TL. Its share in TL deposits fell by 30 bps to 11.7%. In dollar terms, it declined by 2.8% to USD 39.3 billion. The share of KKM deposits in FX deposits fell by 60 bps weekly to 20.3%.
Continuing decline in credit growth. 13W moving average (FX adj.) total lending growth slowed down by 240 bps weekly to 24.8% on a visible slowdown in commercial installment loans.
Total consumer loan growth rose by 50 bps points to 32.5%. Individual and commercial credit cards growth eased by 270bps and 170bps to 41.5% and 26.9%, respectively. In commercial installment loans, growth slowed by 410bps weekly to 53.1%, and the sharpest slowdown was in this segment.
Uninterrupted rise in TL deposits over the last 4 weeks. TL deposits rose by a limited 0.1% on a weekly basis, by 6.6 billion TL. The increase in the last 4 weeks was 4.5% and amounted to 497 billion TL, which is quite strong.
The sector's FX long position is stable, FX short position in private deposit banks. The sector's FX long position is stable at USD1,811mn on a weekly basis. The state and foreign deposit banks' FX long positions increased by 6% and 1% to USD1,480mn and USD456mn. Private deposit banks, on the other hand, announced a short position of USD2mn following a long position of USD86 million in the previous week.
The sector's FC net general position/regulatory ratio is stable at 1.9%. On a segment basis, this ratio is at 5.1% and 1.9% in state and foreign deposit banks, and 0.0% in private deposit banks.
Company News:
Arcelik (ARCLK.TI; OP) has announced the start to discussions with relevant authorities, national and regional trade unions, and employee representatives in Italy, to assess the long-term sustainable transformation plan for its operations in the country upon completion of the Contribution Agreement between Whirlpool Corporation and Arçelik's European operations under Arçelik's control.
Koc Holding (KCHOL.TI; OP) has booked a TRY 3,682mn loss in 3Q24, according to inflation accounting provisions (IAS-29). While the energy and automotive segments supported profitability, business lines in the consumer durables, finance and other segments contributed negatively to consolidated net profit.
Koc Holding printed TRY 858,011mn of combined revenues (including the financial sector) in 3Q24.
The Holding's solo net cash position rose to USD 853mn at the end of 3Q24 from USD 712mn at the end of 2Q24. USD 650mn of net cash consists of foreign currency. Holding's Net debt/EBITDA ratio was 0.9x.
In line with Holding's 3Q24 financial results, we maintain our 12-month target price for KCHOL at TRY 308.72/share. Our target price has 88% upside potential compared to the stock's closing price on November 7, 2024. We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation.
Sisecam (SISE.TI; OP) is set to announce its 3Q24 financials today after the market close.
According to inflation accounting provisions (IAS-29), Turkcell (TCELL.TI; OP) announces TRY 14,280mn net profit for 3Q24 (3Q23: TRY 4,495mn loss). TRY 11,214mn one-off revenue from the transferred Ukraine operations was the main reason for the high net profit. Control of cost and operational expenses supported profitability. While TRY 7,037mn of net financial expenses suppressed net profit, the company recorded a TRY 1,526mn monetary gain, TR 3,705mn other income and TRY 2,290mn tax income. The net profit margin was 37%.
Turkcell booked net sales revenue of TRY 40,141mn including the IAS-29 effect, with a 7% yearly rise. Turkcell gained 322k net subscribers in 3Q24. A growing subscriber base and strong ARPU growth supported sales revenues, forming the basis for real growth.
EBITDA came in at TRY 17,757mn, up 10% from TRY 16,091mn at 3Q23, including the IAS-29 effect. The EBITDA margin was 44.2% in 3Q24 (3Q23: 42.8%).
2024 revenue guidance revised: As a result of changing inflation expectations, the company revised its low double-digit revenue growth expectation for 2024 to approximately 7% real growth. Expectations of a 42% EBITDA margin and a 23% operating expenses/sales ratio for 2024 are maintained.

Yapi Kredi Bank (YKBNK.TI; OP) has received a dual-currency syndication for USD605.4mn and EUR410.1mn (Total amount: USD1,05mn) with 367-day maturity. The rollover rate was 138% (AKBNK:124%) while the all-in costs were Sofr+175bps and Euribor+150bps, respectively, 250bps lower than the bank's borrowing in November 2023 (Neutral).



Şeker Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.

 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr

                                  ***
                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.