Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, September 7, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Wednesday on a positive trend and peaked at 8,298, fluctuating throughout the day to close at 8,181.67, down 0.66%. The Banking Index diverged positively, up 0.84%, while the Industrial Index lost 0.18%. Due to strong domestic investor interest in the post-election period and despite its recent loss of momentum the BIST has increased by nearly 80% without any significant correction thanks also to foreign purchases. The Medium Term Program announced yesterday indicates that the high inflation and high negative real interest rate environment will continue for quite some time. The uptrend is expected to continue in the medium term, although profit sales in the Index are limited and present a buying opportunity. We think that if the foreign outflows seen over the past three weeks continue the rise at the BIST may lose momentum. Yet in turn unless there is a satisfactory rise in TRY deposit rates the decreases will present a buying opportunity. Moreover, in the short term, Mehmet Simsek's meeting with foreign investors in the USA on September 19 may provide further motivation for the Index. Risk appetite in major global stock markets remains weak. Strong economic data from the U.S. strengthens the expectation that the Fed will continue to increase interest rates, while weak data from China increases recession concerns. The U.S. and European Stock Markets ended Wednesday with decreases, and the selling trend continues in the futures and Asian Stock Markets this morning. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session flat. Locally, the Benchmark Index seems set to start the day with a slightly positive trend with the uptrend sustained despite any pullbacks. SUPPORT: 8,108 - 8,005 RESISTANCE: 8,308 - 8,373.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.15% compared to the USD to close to 26.8218. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.09% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond ending at 19.30%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Headlines:
The Medium Term Program for 2024-2026 has been announced by the Presidency. In the program, which has been extensively revised, structural reforms, fiscal discipline, macro financial stability, inflation and employment constitute the main dynamics. The program for 2023, where upside risks persist and macroeconomic stability will be achieved by 2025, has been revised as follows:
1- While inflation is projected at 65% in the program forecast for 2023, it will fall to single digits by the end of 2026. This indicates that the tight monetary policy stance will continue decisively and the price stability target is the main priority. We are entering a period in which tight monetary policy will be implemented in a macro-financial stabilizing context, from exchange rate movements to growth figures.
2- Growth figures have been revised down from 5% to 4.4% for 2023 and 4% and 4.5% for 2024-2025 (previous 5.5%). The downward impact of tight monetary and fiscal policy on growth will be felt significantly in the 2023-2024 period, with recovery expected to start in 2025.
3- Post-earthquake investments and expenditures have made upward revisions in the budget deficit inevitable. Projecting a deficit of 6.4% for 2023-2024 means that the fiscal discipline anchor will be compromised for the rest of the year and throughout 2024. Even in 2026, the budget recovery will hover above the 10-year average of 2.9%.
4- Improvement in the current account deficit in the balance of payments will be made possible by a retraction in the economy's growth figures for 2024. With the reflections of the tight monetary and fiscal policy that cuts domestic demand and the depreciation of the TL, the current account deficit is projected to decline to USD 30 billion in 2026. With the expectation that growth figures will start to recover by the end of 2024, we anticipate that this will have a triggering effect on the current account deficit and will lead to deviations from the program target.
5- The fact that unemployment rates will hover at double digits throughout the program indicates that growth figures will remain below the potential growth level (5%). The lack of a significant improvement in employment figures shows that the program aims to restore deteriorated macro financial stability rather than the growth-employment cycle.



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.