Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Outlook:

The BIST 100 Index started Monday on a negative trend, leaving a price gap and twice encountering a circuit breaker. The Benchmark Index ended the day at 9,893.41, down 5.54%. The Banking Index lost 5.58% and the Industrial Index fell 6.48%. While the harsh sales wave that started in global markets also affected the BIST, the lack of a short-term expectation supporting the bourse also prompted profit sales. Reactionary purchases are observed in major stock markets this morning. We foresee similar purchases at the BIST, and the market may tend to close yesterday's price gap. However, caution should be exercised for leveraged and credit transactions before the wavelengths decrease. While sharp sales were recorded in global markets yesterday led by Asian stock markets, the VIX index rose to the highest levels seen since 2020. Expectations that the Fed may be late in reducing interest rates and that the U.S. economy will not achieve a soft landing have dented global risk appetite. This morning, reactionary purchases are observed in Asian stock markets, and led by the U.S. futures, German DAX futures and the Japanese Nikkei index. After the hard sales there will be balancing movements today if news flows are supportive. The VIOP30 Index ended the evening session down 0.14%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Tuesday on a positive trend, and continue its volatile course thereafter. SUPPORT: 9,750 - 9,600 RESISTANCE: 10,000 - 10,250.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.51% against the USD to close at 33.3790. The currency also depreciated by 0.79% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a range of 27.85%-28.29%, closing the day at 28.22%, up 52 bps from the previous close.
Headlines:
CPI increases by 3.2% mom in July while annual inflation is realized at 61.8%. The impact of variables beyond the monetary policy control area is clearly reflected on the July print… CPI increased by 3.2% mom in July, while annual inflation declined to 61.8% (previous 71.6%). Market expectations were that inflation would increase by 3.4% mom and 62% yoy (Seker Investment expectations were 3.5% mom and 62.1% yoy). We can thus say that the July realization was in line with the market and our expectations. The inflation outlook, which displayed a more positive trend than expected in June, had created optimistic expectations for the year-end realization. However, the government's tax adjustments and volatility in unprocessed food prices put upward pressure on price mechanisms in July. As envisaged at the July Monetary Policy Committee meeting, this effect is expected to be temporary and the year-end realization is expected to remain in line with the CBRT's forecast path. We had expected the inflation trend to evolve into a disinflationary outlook in the second half of the year. Although this transition was disrupted by temporary adjustments in July, we anticipate that it will be back in line with forecasts as of August. The CBRT, which has been trying to contain demand inflation with a tight stance for a long time, may face cost inflation. We anticipate that this pressure may cause an upward forecast deviation. The average of food, housing and transportation inflation, which has a weight of 56.5% in the index, rose by 64.9% yoy. Hence, we can say that the perceived inflation in basic expenditures for households hovered above headline inflation. In the same period, monthly inflation in the Special CPI Aggregate B index (core inflation) was realized as 2.5% while annual inflation was realized as 60.3%. Both the significant slowdown in monthly inflation in core indicators and the fact that the annual change remained below headline inflation due to the base effect are among the positive outcomes of the tight monetary stance. Producer prices rose by 1.9% mom in July, while the annual change in PPI was realized as 41.4%. When we look at the sub-indices of PPI, annual changes in main industrial groups were realized as a 36.96% increase in intermediate goods, 49.78% increase in durable consumer goods, 55.41% increase in non-durable consumer goods, 31.09% increase in energy and 40.06% increase in capital goods. If the current tight monetary stance is maintained decisively, demand inflation will gradually converge to a level consistent with the year-end inflation forecasts.



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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.