Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, September 5, 2024

Outlook:
 
The BIST 100 Index started Wednesday on a negative trend parallel to the global markets and faced sales for a significant part of the day, recovered with increasing purchases towards the closing after the JOLTS data from the USA supported the global markets and completed the day at 9,984.93, down 0.37%. While the Industrial Index decreased by 0.91%, the Banking Index diverged positively, up 0.51%. The Medium Term Program is expected to be announced today. The program, in which expectations regarding important data such as growth and inflation for the years 2025-27 will be announced, may support the market depending on the direction of the expectations. On the global side, although the major stock markets started the day with sales yesterday, the JOLTS data from the USA was announced at the lowest level in recent years, while expectations of stronger interest rate cuts from the Fed increased, causing sales to be limited. Although the expectation of a 50 bps interest rate cut in September increased to 45%, the 25 bps cut is still priced stronger at 55%. This morning, the U.S. Futures, German DAX, and Asian stock markets are trading negatively. We expect the markets to move less volatile before the U.S. non-farm employment data to be announced tomorrow. VIOP30 Index completed the evening session flat, up 0.02%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start the day with reaction purhases, to try to rise later in the day if possible sales are met. SUPPORT: 9,880 - 9,750 RESISTANCE: 10,000 - 10,200
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.04% against the USD to close at 34.0112. The currency also depreciated by 0.15% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of 28.78%-28.82%, ending the day at a high of 28.82%, 33 bps above its previous closing.
Sector News:
*** According to Turkish White Good Manufacturers Association data, among the six main products (Refrigerator, Washing Machine, Dish Washer, Oven, Deep Freeze, and Dryer) production rose 15%, domestic sales increased 3%, exports rose 14% and imports increased 66% YoY in July.
In the first 7 months of year, domestic demand remained strong on a 10% rise YoY. The main reason behind the growth in domestic sales is the demand for drying machines and the rise in deep freezer sales due to the seasonal effect. Domestic demand decreased in the other four main product groups. In the same term, exports shrank by 2% YoY. Thus, total sales increased 2% yearly in the first 5 months of the year.
We foresee domestic demand continue normalizing due to the high base effect, weak purchasing power, tight monetary policy and installment restrictions. On the export side, we predict recovery amid global monetary expansion with the help of the low base effect. We evaluate the latest data as SLIGHTLY POSITIVE for sector stocks ARCLK, VESBE, and VESTL.



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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.