Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Outlook:
 
The BIST 100 Index started Tuesday on a positive trend, yet failed to maintain its strength, succumbing to a downtrend thereafter. The Benchmark Index closed at 10,021.80, down 0.87%. The Industrial Index lost 1.00% and the Banking Index fell 0.97%. Following the strong rise recorded on Monday, the BIST held on above 10,000 yesterday despite profit sales. With August CPI data announced yesterday up by 2.47% monthly, annual inflation was at 51.97%. Following the print, inflation data also showed that the tight monetary policy was starting to yield results. The continued arrival of welcome data will strengthen medium-term positive expectations and support the mid-term outlook for the BIST. On the global front, data and balance sheets printing below expectations, especially in the USA, sustain profit taking from peak levels in major stock markets. Yet while profit realizations occur from time to time, we expect the rising trend in major stock markets to continue as the overall data supports a soft landing and interest rate cut expectations. This morning, the U.S. futures, Asian stock markets and German DAX futures are negative. The VIOP30 Index completed the evening session down 0.51%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Wednesday negatively, and to continue its volatile course thereafter. SUPPORT: 10,000 - 9,980 RESISTANCE: 10,200 - 10,400.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.34% against the USD to close at 33.9990. The currency also depreciated by 0.21% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 28.23%-28.49%, ending the day at a high of 28.49%, 27 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** CPI increases by 2.47% mom in August while annual inflation is realized as 51.97%. The decline in the monthly inflation trend and more favorable developments than market expectations indicate that the tight monetary policy is starting to yield results… CPI increased by 2.47% mom in August, while annual inflation fell to 51.97% (previous 61.8%). Market expectations were that inflation would increase by 2.63% mom and 52.2% yoy (Seker Investment expectations were 2.45% mom and 51.97% yoy). The important development in the inflation data, which printed in line with our expectations, was the levels realized below market expectations, albeit limited. We can say that inflation, which was outside the forecast range in July due to developments beyond the scope of monetary policy control, returned to the forecast path. Since monthly inflation trend realizations are considered as a reference for the monetary policy stance, developments in this trend may contain signals regarding the monetary policy stance in the upcoming period. In the second half of the year, we had expected the inflation trend to evolve into a disinflationary outlook. While the slowdown in economic activity and domestic consumption has brought the monthly inflation trend down, annual inflation has also improved significantly due to the strong base effect. On the other hand, current inflation levels are still hovering around 2.5%, close to the upper bound of the forecast path. This may cause upward deviations from the CBRT's inflation forecast. The average of food, housing and transportation inflation, which has a weight of 56.5% in the index, rose by 54.21% yoy. Hence, we can say that the perceived inflation in basic expenses for households hovered above headline inflation. In the same period, monthly inflation in the Special CPI Aggregate B index (core inflation) was realized as 2.88% while annual inflation was realized as 50.87%. While monthly inflation in core indicators remained above headline inflation, annual inflation improved significantly due to the base effect. Producer prices, on the other hand, rose by 1.68% mom in August, while the annual change in PPI was realized as 35.75%. When we look into the sub-indices of PPI, annual changes in main industrial groups were realized as 33.56% increase in intermediate goods, 40.70% increase in durable consumer goods, 48.79% increase in non-durable consumer goods, 18.20% increase in energy and 37.98% increase in capital goods. If the current tight monetary stance is maintained decisively, cost inflation will increase slightly and demand inflation will gradually converge to a level consistent with the year-end inflation forecasts.
Company News:
Birikim Asset Management has won the tender for the sale of Isbank's (ISCTR.TI; OP) one NPL portfolios for TRY203mn by submitting the highest bid. The total sales amount represents 1% of the bank's NPL book as of 2Q24, and should reduce the NPL ratio by 1bps.
Gelecek Asset Management has won the tender for the sale of Isbank's (ISCTR.TI; OP) one NPL portfolios for TRY252mn by submitting the highest bid. The total sales amount represents 1% of the bank's NPL book as of 2Q24, and should reduce the NPL ratio by 2bps.
Gelecek Asset Management has won the tender for the sale of Garanti BBVA's (GARAN.TI; OP) 3 NPL portfolios for TRY790mn by submitting the highest bid. The total sales amount represents 3% of the bank's NPL book as of 2Q24, and should reduce the NPL ratio by 6bps.
Yapı Kredi Bank (YKBNK.TI; OP) has authorized a group of banks to issue debt abroad for USD500mn with 5Y maturity and coupon payments every 6 months with a 7.125% coupon rate. As you may remember, coupon rate for the bank's latest AT1 debt issue in March was 9.743%.



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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.