AGHOL Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

Stay strong on defense, and you will never be on the fence

Defensive pick up for any inflationary pressure

Anadolu Grubu Holding (AGHOL), which has an extensive range of FMCG coverage, has shown solid pricing power and has been able to pass most of the cost pressures on its final product prices. Furthermore, the soft drink segment not only reflected the inflation but also experienced double digit volume growth in overseas and single digit volume growth in the domestic market. While beer segment volume exc. Ukr was flat yoy, the EBITDA more than doubled thanks to pricing, favorable hedges, opex discipline, and FX moves. Anadolu Efes’ (AEFES) guidance of low-to-mid single digit volume growth and Migros’ (MGROS) announcement of 365 new store openings offer prospects for organic growth beyond the inflationary tide.

Increasing footprint on int markets with strong global partners

Share of international revenues increased to 37% in 2022 thanks particularly to strong performance of soft drinks as well as FX moves. Non-Turkey EBITDA share, on the other hand is up 8pp y-y to reach 45% from 37% further supported by strong profitability of international beer operations. Partnerships with brands such as Coca-Cola, AB InBev, Kia, Isuzu, Faber-Castell is a sign of strong credibility while providing sustainable growth and international experience.

48% NAV discount is not fair

AGHOL is currently trading at a wide 39% discount to the value of its listed subsidiaries, whereas the two-year average stands at 24%. When the book value of unlisted subsidiaries such as Turkish electric car TOGG’s 23% stake is included, the NAV discount increases to an unjustifiable 48%. The trailing P/E is a mere 6.16x which is lower than 2-year average of 9.74x.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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